The scout evaluates the potential Bruno Fernandes (£8.2m) as a short-term option among managers in Fantasy Premier League.

Manchester UnitedHis playmaker has immediately stepped up his production since Ruud van Nistelrooy was appointed caretaker manager.

Fernandes scored twice in the Dutchman’s first game in charge last week, a 5-2 win in the EFL Cup. Leicester City. Then he took advantage of the penalties to score the home team’s goal in a 1-1 draw with Chelsea last weekend, collecting a season-high 10 points.

Man Utd’s upcoming schedule certainly raises the appeal of investing in Fernandes ahead of the arrival of Ruben Amorim as the new head coach.

right Device difficulty ratings (FDR), each of the next three matches scores only two.

Man Utd’s next three games

*1 = lightest setting possible, 5 = heaviest setting possible

That run, coincidentally, begins with a reprisal of their home meeting with Leicester in what will be Van Nistelrooy’s last game in charge.

In Gameweek 11, Man Utd then face another promoted side, Town of Ipswichin their first match under Amorim.

And there will also be a sense of occasion for Amorim’s first Premier League home game Evertonbefore the schedule quickly turned against them with visits to Arsenal and Manchester City in the next three weeks of play.

Is Fernandes Man Utd’s best choice in Fantasy?

There’s no denying that Fernandes has had a disappointing start to Fantasy 2024/25, with just one goal and two assists.

Additionally, two of those offensive returns have come in the last two home games. In addition to his penalty against Chelsea, he provided an assist against Brentford in Game Week 8.

By analyzing basic stats from the past four weeks of play, managers can get a clearer picture of a player’s Fantasy goal and assist potential.

Fernandes’ complete playing style is immediately highlighted by his involvement in big occasions – situations where the player is expected to score.

He had three of them – including the penalty against Chelsea – and created a further five such chances, meaning he was involved in a total of eight big chances in Gameweeks 7-10.

Not only is he top for Man Utd, he ranks first among ALL players in Fantasy.

The Portuguese’s eight key assists are also a team-leading total, underscoring his superior assist prospects.

Meanwhile, Fernandes’ 15 strikes and seven shots in which are bettered only by Alejandro Garnacho (£6.3 million), which had 18 and 13 respectively.

Fernandes’ goal threat GW7-10

How Fernandes’ form compares to top scoring midfielders

A comparison of Fernandes with the four highest scoring midfielders in Fantasy – Mohamed Salah (£12.8 million), Cole Palmer (£11.0 million), Bryan Mbeumo (£7.8 million) and Bukayo Saka (£10.1m) – reinforces its appeal as a short-term investment.

In the last four Gameweeks, Fernandes’ eight high-chance involvements are three more than Salah and Saka, and TWICE Palmer’s total of four.

The Portuguese also had 15 strikes, more than all his rivals, as shown in the table below.

The midfielders’ goal threat was compared to GW7-10

What does the data tell us about the expected goals?

Expected Goals (xG) data brings an extra element to managers’ decision-making in Fantasy.

The xG value measures, on a scale of zero to one, the probability that a shot will result in a goal, where zero is a no-goal chance and one is the chance that a player will score every time.

Similarly, expected assist (xA) measures the probability that a completed pass will become an assist for a goal.

A player’s overall offensive potential is then measured by combining both their xG and xA to create their Expected Goal Engagement (xGI) score.

The numbers indicate that Fernandes has had the goal threat of Mbeumo and the creative potential of Salah in his first 10 game weeks.

In terms of goal threat, Fernandes’ xG score of 3.75 is almost identical to Mbeumo’s 3.78. But while the Brentford star has scored eight goals, Fernandes has just one.

When it comes to assist potential, the Man Utd star posted an xA of 1.79 to Salah’s 1.77. However, Fernandes’ two assists are less than half of his rival’s five.

Fernandes’ output of just one goal and two assists from an xGI of 5.54 means he underperformed his xGI by 2.54, giving him an “xGI delta” score of -2.54, THE SECOND HIGHEST WORST of any player this season.

Midfielders expected data compared GW1-10

Finally, while these xG numbers serve to highlight just how frustrating a pick Fernandes can be, they also help show that the Portuguese compares very favorably to top-scoring midfielders when it comes to comeback potential in attack.