Why are India’s policymakers and Ministry of External Affairs mandarins watching the 2024 US presidential election with bated breath and eagle eyes? The answer may seem simple: the election results may affect Indo-US relations. Serious?

It is not as easy to answer this question as it seems. US foreign policy is generally seen as something that doesn’t suddenly change with the change of person sitting in the Oval Office in the White House. It’s a bipartisan issue on most issues.

India’s bipartisan approach

Both Democratic and Republican candidates agree that India is useful and indispensable in many ways to protect US interests in Asia and to expand and strengthen its geopolitical significance in the world.

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As Washington wants to stop Chinese expansionism in the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific region, it has plans to use New Delhi to checkmate Beijing.

India Chessing China?

With the Quadrilateral Dialogue or the Quad gaining ground and being labeled as the NATO of Asia, India has no parallel in stopping the dragon in its own game of Chinese checkers.

At a time when Beijing has rejected the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and rejected Japanese maritime advances, India is the one country China will find difficult to defeat.

The Significance of India in the Game of Chinese Checkers

Although India has no territorial claim in the South China Sea and has a less significant maritime strip running through the area, New Delhi has recently begun to assert itself. Beijing has repeatedly asked New Delhi to steer clear of the controversy, but to no avail.

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Political analysts believe that India wants to exploit the South China Sea controversy and stand with countries like Japan and the Philippines in a bid to increase pressure on China so that it can extract concessions for its own geopolitical advantage.

India-China border dispute: decisive factor

For a country that has a disputed border of 4,057 kilometers and an unresolved LAC that runs through the sensitive states of Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh, it is quite obvious to exploit the situation. So it is not surprising that New Delhi has shown increased interest in the South China Sea in the name of free navigation rights.

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The Indo-Pacific region is another area where New Delhi can help the US dispatch China. The US has made its footprint from Guam to Diego Garcia and Africa or the Cape of Good Hope to tiny islands in the ocean, China is increasing its presence and expanding its significance through the Belt and Road Initiative.

How will India help the US in the Indo-Pacific?

It will take some time for Beijing to catch up with the US, but the dragon has awoken and is making serious inroads in the region. India can unite with Australia and New Zealand and help the US without joining AUKUS or the Australia-UK-US bloc.

Kamala Harris or Donald Trump whoever wins, the new US president will have to deepen the relationship with India.

Will India benefit from China-US trade war?

Political analysts believe that Donald Trump could adopt a more volcanic approach to Beijing on geopolitical and economic issues. A stickler for the slogans “America First” and “Make America Great Again,” the Republican president is most likely to turn those slogans into reality.

A trade war between the US and China, with new tariffs on Chinese imports, is most likely to start soon, perhaps weeks after Donald Trump takes the oath of office on January 20, 2025. It is also most likely that adopt a similar though not the same. tough approach towards India, as he stated several times during his election campaign.

While Indian exports to the US may decline with rising tariffs and a hostile trade environment, they may help Indian trade in a new and different way. New Delhi can use the US anti-China trade ecosystem to increase its own trade with the country with some tweaks. While it may not replace the dragon, India can certainly bridge the gap it may suffer from tariff hikes in that country.

Indian Foreign Affairs mandarins are also closely watching the US presidential election, as if elected, Donald Trump is most likely to put a damper on the H1B visa, which is used by Indian nationals, especially those in the sector IT. If the Republican leader becomes US President, Indians may be at the receiving end of fewer visas. It may affect remittances as well as earnings of IT and ITES sector employees.

Will remittances from the US decline?

Diaspora Indians living in the US sent $125 billion to their home country in 2023-24. India’s remittances increased from %87 billion in 2020-21 to $89 billion in 21-22 and $110 billion in 2022-23. It could drop if Donald Trump is elected and implements his policy of limiting the influx of immigrants, Indian politicians say.

The Indian mandarins wait with their fingers crossed but with baited breath. Let the American voters decide.