Republicans are trying to downplay Saturday’s shocking Iowa poll showing Vice President Harris leading President Trump in the state, which has gone for the GOP by a few points in the past two presidential elections. It comes as other polls show Ms Harris opening up a slim lead in key battleground states just 48 hours before Election Day.

The Iowa poll by the Des Moines Register and J. Ann Selzer Poll found Ms. Harris leading Trump by three points in the state, 47 percent to 44 percent. It’s a remarkable result for Democrats, given that President Biden was trailing Trump by 18 points in June in the same Ms. Selzer poll, and Trump led Ms. Harris by four points in September.

Ms. Selzer is considered to be one of the best investigators in the country with a track record to prove it. In the past three presidential elections, her pre-election poll has accurately predicted the Iowa outcome within a two-point margin. In the 2022, 2020 and 2014 state Senate races, her poll came close to accurately predicting the winners of each of those contests.

“No president has done more for FARMERS and the Great State of Iowa than Donald J. Trump. In fact, it’s not even close! All the polls, except one heavily skewed towards Democrats by a Trump hater who last time called it totally wrong, have me up, BY A LOT,” Trump said on Truth Social.

Shortly after the poll was released, Trump’s own polling team, led by Tony Fabrizio, released a memo detailing alleged problems with the Selzer poll. Calling it an “abnormal” poll compared to other polls — such as an Emerson College poll released Saturday that showed Trump up 10 points in Iowa — Mr. Fabrizio writes that Ms. Selzer underestimated an increase sharp increase in Republican registration over the past four years and strong early voting among GOP voters.

Iowa — once considered a swing state — is one of those Midwestern states that has shifted sharply to the right in the Trump era. The state hasn’t sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2008, hasn’t elected a Democrat as governor since 2006, and all four of the state’s congressional seats are currently held by the GOP.

Iowa conservatives, who in the past have praised Ms. Selzer, were quick to turn against her on Saturday after the favorable result for Ms. Harris was released. “Never quote the Des Moines Register polls to me again. @jaselzer just completely flushed whatever was left of her credibility down the toilet. Willful misconduct,” popular Iowa conservative radio host Steve Deace told X. FAMILY Leader President Bob Vander Plaats — who is seen as the most influential Christian leader in the state — called the Selzer poll a “wanted narrative” . poll.”

Beyond Ms. Selzer’s poll, which thrilled Democrats on Saturday, the New York Times and Siena College released their latest poll of the 2024 race on Sunday, and it shows Ms. Harris with a slight lead in key battleground states that would lead to an election. College Victory.

The Times–Siena poll finds Ms. Harris leading Trump in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia, though all states are within the margin of error. She is up three points in Nevada, two points in both North Carolina and Wisconsin and one point in Georgia. Pennsylvania and Michigan are tied, while Trump holds a four-point lead in Arizona.

If the poll proves correct on Tuesday, Ms. Harris would enter the Electoral College with only Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Georgia in her column, along with other states that are considered solidly in her column.