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    • Marist/PBS/NPR National Poll: Presidential Election Poll Results
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    Marist/PBS/NPR National Poll: Presidential Election Poll Results

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    Vice President Kamala Harris has a four point lead over former President Donald Trump in the final national poll released Monday by Marist.

    The survey of 1,297 likely voters, sponsored by NPR and PBSsaw 51 percent of respondents support Harris, while 47 percent supported Trump. The remaining 2% supported a third-party candidate. The result is outside the poll’s margin of error of ±3.5 percentage points.

    The poll found Harris down significantly President Trump with men at the national level. Trump still leads men in the poll 51%-47%, but the previous version of the poll had Trump ahead by 16 points. Harris rule among women in the poll 55%-45%, although her previous lead was 18 points.

    Respondents who told Marist this they had already voted made up 55% of the sample, conducted by phone, text message or online between October 31 and November 2. Fifty-six percent of those who had already voted preferred Harris, while 53% of those who had not yet voted preferred Trump.

    “Harris is well positioned to secure the popular vote for president, but has a narrow path to reach 270 in the Electoral College,” Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in the poll’s release. . “Former President Trump’s candidacy held back by his high negatives among likely voters”.

    The Marist survey is the latest survey to show a last second swing by momentum toward Harrisincluding a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll which had the vice president ahead in a state considered safe for Trump. Other national surveys have shown a race that appears to be neck and neck.

    Things to consider about surveys

    The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the entire population.

    When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.

    Pew has, too found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

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