Missouri Republicans have had near-total control of state government and politics since 2016, and that may not change after Tuesday — especially if Democrats can’t make inroads in the state’s rural and suburban areas.

But Tuesday’s election could deal a blow to an issue that helped the party gain more support in Missouri – abortion restrictions.

Here are some key things to look for in Tuesday’s Missouri election:

Sarah Kellogg

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St. Louis Public Radio

Will Amendment 3 show that a GOP-leaning state can embrace abortion rights?

On the surface, it seems odd that a state like Missouri, which will comfortably vote for Donald Trump, will too enshrined the right to abortion in its constitution.

But even the Republicans i admit this is a strong possibility given the massive financial upside of amendment 3 and solid public poll results. And if abortion rights advocates are successful, it would serve as a rebuke to Missouri Republicans who passed one of the the most restrictive abortion bans in the country.

But in 2006, a measure protecting embryonic stem cell research barely passed even though supporters outnumbered opponents by a huge margin. And in the last week, the anti-Amendment 3 campaign he got some sizable checks — money that could help energize socially conservative and religious voters who see abortion as morally wrong.

Brian Munoz

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St. Louis Public Radio

Can Kamala Harris Turn Back the Clock on the Democrats’ Presidential Performance?

There is no scenario where Trump doesn’t win Missouri. State it gave up its battleground status after 2008and Kamala Harris didn’t put much effort into pulling the state’s 10 electoral votes into her column.

But that doesn’t mean the results of the presidential race are insignificant to Missouri Democrats. One of the big reasons they have lost so much ground at the state level is that Trump won the state by gigantic margins in 2016 and 2020. And if he wins in 2024 by anywhere from 15 to 19 percentage points, it will be difficult for any statewide candidate to prevail.

So if Harris can narrow his margin of defeat to about 10 percentage points, which was basically how much Barack Obama lost to Mitt Romney in 2012, that could benefit state and state legislative Democrats. And while Trump still has strong support in some rural and suburban counties, Harris could increase Democratic turnout among black and female voters compared to the past two election cycles.

One of the big highlights of Biden’s performance in Missouri in 2020 was how he cracked 60 percent of the vote in St. Louis. And while his strong showing didn’t necessarily cause Prominent St. County Republicans Louis to lose that yearit matched a broader national trend of college-educated white voters moving toward the Democratic Party.

Tristan Rouse

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St. Louis Public Radio

Will Amendment 3 Voters Help Missouri Democrats?

In addition to Trump’s backlash, abortion rights could also drive Democratic turnout in the state’s suburban areas.

Most public polls show Republicans winning statewide contests with little trouble, even if Amendment 3 violates 50% of the vote. There are many theories as to why this might be, including the fact that a small minority of Missouri Republicans supports abortion rights.

Where the impact of Amendment 3 could be much greater is in the state’s competitive legislative districts, particularly the 15th Senate District race between Republican David Gregory and Democrat Joe Pereles. If Amendment 3 ends up passing in historically Republican seats like Chesterfield and Ballwin, then it could benefit Pereles — who has made his support for abortion rights a critical aspect of his campaign.

Democrats could also make gains in the Missouri House, perhaps enough to break the GOP supermajority there for the first time in more than a decade.

Sophie Proe

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St. Louis Public Radio

Can Kunce unseat Hawley without the help of national Democrats?

One of the easiest ways to tell if a congressional race is competitive is if campaign committees tied to the Democratic or Republican parties are spending a lot of money to help a candidate.

That’s not happening in Missouri’s US Senate race between Republican incumbent Josh Hawley and Democrat Lucas Kunce. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee passed over Missouri and instead chose to assist candidates running in Texas and Florida.

Kunce’s ads talk about how he doesn’t take money from “party bosses” — a reference to DSCC’s lack of support. And he said last week that a good result on Tuesday could show the conventional wisdom about the federal election wrong.

“I don’t take money from corporate PACs, or federal lobbyists, or Big Pharma executives and others. And, you know, the Democratic illuminati thought that was stupid, right? Kunce said. “And they didn’t think this was possible. We proved that wrong.”

Sophie Proe

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St. Louis Public Radio

Has Hawley’s aggressive stance paid off?

Hawley isn’t treating his run against Kunce like a cakewalk.

He aggressively attacked Kunce in commercials, to the debatesin speeches and even at the Missouri State Fair. When asked in mid-October if his aggressive stance was a preparation for him to run for president in 2028Hawley laughed and said, “This is a very competitive race.”

Kunce has been disappointing Hawley throughout the 2024 election cycle.

“I mean, they’ve thrown so much money into the state,” Hawley said of the groups backing Kunce. “All you have to do is turn on the TV.”

Sophie Proe

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St. Louis Public Radio

Can any state Democrats get their geographic coalition back together?

Missouri Democrats are at a structural disadvantage in statewide races because they have lost so much ground in rural and suburban counties.

There is no path to victory for candidates like Kunce or Democratic gubernatorial candidate Crystal Quade if they are crushed in sparsely populated counties or fast-growing suburbs like Jefferson County.

With most statewide Republican candidates having more money than their Democratic counterparts, putting together that elusive rural, suburban and urban coalition could be a challenge — especially with Trump likely to win the state.

But it will be worth watching if Kunce is able to make inroads in historically Democratic areas or if Quade, who is from Springfield, can accelerate some Democratic growth in parts of the state where Republicans usually dominated.

Tristan Rouse

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St. Louis Public Radio

Will lawmakers have to go back to the drawing board on sports betting?

While Amendment 3 is the most important initiative on this year’s ballot, the fiercest financial battle is whether to legalize sports betting.

Amendment 2 supporters received millions from sports betting apps DraftKings and FanDuel and significant support from professional sports teams. That seemed to place the measure on a path to passage.

But then a number of casinos associated with Caesars funded a group that helped produce ads questioning whether the proceeds from Amendment 2 would go to education.

Polls show the vote on the amendment will be close.

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