A Donald Trump presidency could increase costs for Canadian and Alberta companies, while Kamala Harris’ policies are expected to have minimal direct impact on Alberta. Jean David Tremblay-Frenette, Chief Economist at AIMCO, joined CTV Morning Live’s Kent Morrison to discuss what Albertans may see in the future.

This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.

Kent Morrison: The outcome of tomorrow’s US election could have a big impact on our province, no matter who wins. We welcome Jean David Tremblay-Frenette, Chief Economist at AIMCO, for more on this. Let’s talk about Donald Trump first if he wins. He talked about tariffs, what could that mean for us in Alberta?

Jean David Tremblay-Frenette: Trump’s proposals are for wholesale protectionism. He talks about blanket tariffs of 60% on all imports from China, but also tariffs of between 10 and 20% on imports from all other countries, including Canada. So, in practice, it means higher prices for all the goods that Canadian and Alberta companies use to produce final goods.

Kent: This could have a big impact at a time when the Canadian dollar is also in a tough spot right now. Do we expect this to continue?

Jean David: Yes, frankly, at this stage, it’s very clear that if President Trump is elected, then we’re in for a period of potentially higher prices and higher inflation once again. That means on both sides of the border, central banks have to keep interest rates slightly higher.

Kent: What about Kamala Harris? Will he have an impact here in Alberta if he wins?

Jean David: In fact, the impact of Harris’ proposals is quite small. It focuses more on domestic politics, not so much on foreign trade. This is a big difference in politics. So more higher taxation for US corporations, but also more support for low-income housing, a pursuit of the green agenda in the US Overall, not much of an impact for Canada.

Kent: Now, this green agenda of renewables. What would this do for Alberta’s energy sector?

Jean David: The reality here is that the energy transition process is very protracted in nature.

We are talking about decades in which fossil fuels are still extremely necessary to drive the global economy.

All in all, it doesn’t mean much change for Alberta, at least in the short to medium term.

We will still be exporting quite a bit of natural gas through some of the pipelines that go through BC and go to Asia.

Kent: The USMCA, also known as the new NAFTA, has to be renegotiated in 2026. What could be the impact of that deal, given that one of these two leaders wins?

Jean David: Both sides have put their callers on notice saying they will seek a fairly comprehensive renegotiation of the USMCA trade agreement.

And what that means is that Canada should brace itself for a difficult negotiation process that will take some time.

So for now, everything seems relatively steady on the trade side. However, come 2026, and in the future, it will be a different story.

Kent: We appreciate your understanding for us this morning and will certainly be watching closely on Tuesday evening.