Vice-President Kamala Harris saw her odds of winning Tuesday’s election rise sharply in the final days of the race, according to a bookmaker.

Polymarket, an online platform where users can place ‘yes’ or ‘no’ bets on the probability of world events, currently gives the vice president a 41.4% chance of victory, with Donald Trump the favorite at 58.5 percent Monday morning.

On Oct. 30, Polymarket said Harris had a 33 percent chance of winning the 2024 election. Trump’s odds of victory were down nearly 10 points at the time of writing Monday morning from his 67 percent Polymarket same day.

Polymarket is a betting platform that is based offshore. It works roughly like a stock exchange where users can buy and sell shares representing future outcomes of events, that improvement or decline in quotas depending on how much money is spent on a certain outcome, in this case who wins the presidential election. If you buy shares of Harris winning when her odds are 41.4% and hold them until the election, you’ll get a dollar for about every 41 cents invested…if, of course, the vice president actually wins.

Questions arose about Trump’s chances in the Polymarket forecast as one person was said to be behind several accounts. who spent millions of dollars betting that Trump will win Tuesday’s race. The former president’s chances of winning on the site were generally higher than other prognosticators.

Newsweek reached out to the Trump and Harris campaign teams as well as Polymarket for comment by email.

Harris’ improved ratings on the site came after a surprise poll suggested she beats trump in iowaa state previously not considered up for grabs for the Democrat.

The survey from J. Ann Selzer, one of the the most respected and accurate surveyorsfor The Des Moines Register and Mediacom, showed Harris leading in Iowa by 47 percent to 44. The result is within the margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points. The poll of 808 likely Iowa voters was conducted Oct. 28-31.

Trump led Harris in a September Iowa poll by 4 points (47 percent to 43). In a June Selzer poll, Trump had an 18-point lead over the president Joe Bidenthe presumptive Democratic nominee at the time. Trump won Iowa in the 2016 and 2020 elections by nearly 10 and 9 point margins, respectively.

While the Iowa poll is only a statewide poll, it could indicate that Harris is winning significant boost and support as the election campaign winds down. Polls suggest that if Harris can pull off a surprise result in Iowa, it could have broader implications for the race across the country.

“In a scenario where Harris wins Iowa, she likely performs well elsewhere in the Midwest, particularly Michigan and Wisconsin. In that case, he would already be almost certain to win the Electoral College,” a veteran pollster. Nate Silver he wrote on his Silver Bulletin blog.

Selzer indicated that older women and independent women were largely responsible for the shift toward Harris in Iowa.

Senior voters favor Harris over Trump by 63 percent, at 28.

Independent voters, who previously supported Trump in every other Iowa Selzer poll this year, now favor Harris, 46% to 39. Independent women also now support Harris over Trump by 57% to 29, a significant increase from the vice president’s 5-point lead. had in the September survey (40 percent to 35).

An Emerson College poll of 800 likely voters in Iowa, released the same day as the Selzer poll, suggests Tuesday’s election will be more in line with past results.

The poll gives Trump a 10-point lead over Harris in Iowa (53 percent to 43). The poll was conducted on November 1 and 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

At the time of writing, Polymarket gives Harris a 19 percent chance of winning Iowa on Tuesday, up from 5 percent the day before the Selzer poll was released.

As for the seven primary states, Polymarket currently shows Harris as the favorite in Wisconsin (59 percent chance of winning to Trump’s 42) and Michigan (61 percent to 40).

Polymarket gives Trump a better chance of victory in Arizona (77 percent to 25), Georgia (66 to 34), Nevada (63 to 37), North Carolina (66 to 35) and Pennsylvania (57 to 44).