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How the late round RB looked in Week 9
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How the late round RB looked in Week 9

JK Dobbins #27 of the Los Angeles Chargers

JK Dobbins’ amazing comeback story continued in Week 9. (Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images) (Gregory Shamus via Getty Images)

What a week for late round runners! Five quarterbacks drafted with ADPs of 90 or higher finished in the top 10 on the starting list and were some of my personal favorites during the week:

  • Tony Pollard (90.8 ADP)

  • Chase Brown (113.8)

  • JK Dobbins (130)

  • Rico Dowdle (128.3)

  • Chuba Hubbard (129.9)

This production is not an anomaly. These backs continued to grow as the season progressed and proved their worth as fantastic assets. However, the question remains: How much can we trust these backs going forward?

Earlier this week, I predicted a strong performance from Tony Pollard of 20 carries for 100+ yards, plus solid receiving work and a touchdown to give him a top 10 ranking. While he fell short of that mark due to the lack of a touchdown, he still had an excellent day with 28 carries for 128 yards and three receptions for 26 yards. He’ll likely end up as a borderline RB1, depending on the outcome of early games.

Coming into the season, we had concerns about Pollard after his disappointing 2023 season and thought Tyjae Spears could take over the backfield. Spears battled injuries and Pollard dominated in touchdowns with a strong stat year despite the Titans’ offensive struggles. This week, Pollard was RB22 in points per game average in half of PPR, which is respectable given his limited touchdown opportunities. His production has been consistent, maintaining a decent floor.

The Titans offense feels different with Mason Rudolph at the helm. It’s not perfect, but it provides more stability. In better matchups, Pollard has a low-range RB1 ceiling, and in tougher matchups, he’s a flex option. The next two weeks are a bit of a shakeup, but the real key with Pollard is his playoff schedule. In the Week 13 through Week 17 fantasy championships, Pollard faces Washington, Jacksonville (twice), Cincinnati and Indianapolis.

Pollard is a solid trade candidate at a reasonable value and you can reap the benefits in the fantasy playoffs. His work is safe, the workload is strong and the floor is solid.

With Zack Moss out, Brown was upgraded from the committee to run back and was the only quarterback to touch the ball in Week 9 for the Bengals. Brown had 27 carries for 120 yards and caught all five targets for 37 yards and a touchdown. He took full advantage of a struggling Raiders defense, and it was great to see him handle such a heavy load — and a clear sign of the confidence the Bengals coaching staff has in him.

I discussed Brown in my make or break column and highlighted his potential to thrive this weekgiven the confrontation. When injuries occur within the committees, we often see another step back to maintain the offensive structure rather than a full return takeover. We saw that today in the Commanders’ backfield, where Austin Ekeler, Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols shared the load with Brian Robinson Jr.

Brown, however, was a clear three-down back.

Brown was one of my favorite picks this season because while Moss was expected to start the season as the starting quarterback, I had full confidence that Brown was simply the best quarterback and that he would eventually take over. As the season progressed, Brown steadily reduced Moss’ workload, but it was clear the Bengals had no intention of removing Moss by committee. Both rears had decent floors, but the top was limited due to volume limitations.

There are a few things working against Chase Brown. The advanced metrics have favored Brown for most of the season, and despite his clear upside, the Bengals haven’t aggressively shifted the workload in his favor. It’s hard to believe they’ll phase out Moss. While I think Brown would have gained a slight edge, Moss’ presence will be enough to cover Brown’s true ceiling. This means Brown will have the upside RB1 in great matchups, but will function more as a low-end RB2 in tougher matchups.

The Bengals’ upcoming schedule includes tough defenses with Baltimore in Week 10, followed by the LA Chargers and then a bye week. I believe in Brown’s talent, but I’m not sure if the Bengals believe in him enough to make him a clear-cut lead back. Talent usually wins, but the Bengals organization is prone doubtful practices.

If Moss’ injury remains an issue, it’s Brown to the Moon. If Moss comes back quickly, we’re back to the same thing.

For a lesser-known running back in one of the league’s worst offenses, there was a surprising amount of debate among fantasy managers regarding Chuba Hubbard. Heading into the season, we expected Hubbard to be a short-term replacement before Jonathon Brooks returned from the PUP list.

Instead, we’re heading into Week 10 and Brooks has yet to see action.

Hubbard was excellent as the leader of the Panthers. Outside of a poor performance in Week 1, Hubbard has finished no lower than RB33 and has three (and potentially four, depending on Week 9 prime-time games) in the top 10. He typically boasts a two- numbers, with a strong ceiling and has been one of the most reliable defenders in the league.

Brooks is likely to be active in Week 10, but it’s hard to imagine the non-contending Panthers pushing Brooks into a heavy workload right away. Hubbard has been effective, and there’s no reason for the Panthers to rush Brooks back, especially with a bye in Week 11. I expect Brooks to be used minimally in Week 10, with Hubbard remaining the lead back for another week.

After the bye, Brooks could see an increased workload, but Hubbard should keep his value flexible, especially during the playoffs with games against Dallas, Arizona and Tampa Bay. The Panthers offense doesn’t have enough juice to support two backs productively, so something has to give here, but that “yes” could easily fall on Brooks.

The Panthers have no incentive to give a heavy workload to Brooks, and the hope is that they will keep Brooks’ usage to a minimum, with Hubbard remaining the leader. His ceiling would be down, but he would remain worthy of a start.

We’ve talked about running backs in underwhelming offenses like Tennessee and Carolina, but Dallas is on another level. They have underperformed expectations and are in an absolute skid that could get worse with Dak Prescott dealing with a hamstring injury and CeeDee Lamb nursing a shoulder injury.

Despite his Week 9 struggles in Dallas, Rico Dowdle had a strong fantasy performance. His volume was low, but he was incredibly productive against Atlanta: 75 yards on 12 carries, plus five receptions for 32 yards and a touchdown.

It’s been a while since I’ve seen Dowdle in a full body of work; about a month. In Week 5, Dowdle had a breakout performance with 20 carries for 87 yards and a receiving touchdown, but was injured the following week. Dallas had a bye in Week 7, and in Week 8, Dowdle was a late scratch due to an illness. With Ezekiel Elliott inactive in Week 9 for disciplinary reasons, Dowdle had no competition and thrived despite the offense’s struggles.

He was by far the best in Dallas, and his job is very secure. After a tough matchup with Philadelphia next week, the competition quiets down, especially in Week 16 when Dowdle faces Cincinnati, Carolina and Tampa Bay. Dowdle should maintain the leadership role and has RB1 upside, even with the teams injuries looming.

I saved Dobbins for last because he really is the Cinderella story of the year.

Everyone’s favorite comeback player right now is Kirk Cousins, but don’t discount Dobbins! He dominated the Chargers backcourt from the start and never let up. Week 9 was one of his best performances of the season with 14 carries for 85 yards and two touchdowns, plus two receptions for 20 yards. Heading into Week 9, Dobbins was the RB17 in average points per game in the PPR half, averaging 13.7 fantasy points per game.

Checking the pulse: Will the clock strike midnight in our Cinderella story?

Right now, the only thing working against Dobbins is his own injury history. He hasn’t played more than eight games since his rookie season in 2020, so it feels like we’re at a critical juncture and holding our breath for every shot. There is no threat to his workload and the Chargers offense continues to improve as their young receivers develop. That improvement will increase landing opportunities, leading to more plays like his Week 9 production.

The road ahead for Dobbins is a bit tough. While there are favorable matchups against Atlanta and Tampa Bay, there are also tough defenses in Baltimore, Kansas City and Denver. Despite the potential defensive pitfalls, Dobbins remains a strong three-down back, truly an upside RB1 — health permitting, of course.