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Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election have suddenly gone into free fall
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Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election have suddenly gone into free fall

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris enter the final days of their race for the White House. with Tesla billionaire Elon Musk warning of a “financial emergency”.

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trump, who recently declared himself the “Crypto President,” saw his odds of victory on crypto-based prediction platform Polymarket rise by October, peaking at 67%.

Now, as investors begin to panic about the Federal ReserveTrump’s odds of victory went into freefall, moving toward a 50/50 split between Trump and his Democratic rival Harris.

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Trump’s odds of victory on Polymarket, which uses the dollar-pegged stablecoin USDC to facilitate trading but is not available to US users, collapsed to about 54% over the weekend, just two days before the election. Tuesday.

Harris saw his odds jump from 33 percent to 45 percent as punters increasingly bet he would win the White House after an Iowa poll by acclaimed pollster Ann Selzer of The Des Moines Register showed Harris leading Trump by three points among likely voters, though the poll found no clear frontrunner in the race, even though Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020.

On rival prediction platform Kalshi, which last week launched crypto deposits via USDC and is open to US users, the gap between Trump and Harris narrowed to just four percentage points.

Kalshi users put Trump at 52 percent, while Harris has a 48 percent chance of winning the White House, down from a 65 percent to 35 percent split in favor of Trump earlier this week.

The odds prediction platform, unlike polls, is not a poll of voters, but rather an open market that allows users to bet on the expected outcome of all kinds of events, from elections to pop culture and sports.

Since January, Polymarket has bet just over $3 billion on the outcome of the US presidential election, with Trump consistently the favorite among its users, who are believed to skew young, male and interested in crypto.

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A Polymarket user in France has bet $30 million that Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election, recounting THE Wall Street Journal he is not trying to influence the vote and that “his intention is only to make money”.

Cryptocurrency-based prediction platform Polymarket has grown in popularity in recent months, with those in the crypto community taking advantage of a successful use case for the technology.

Interest in Polymarket increased the following summer users were betting heavily on President Joe Biden to drop out of the race in early Julyweeks before Biden’s withdrawal from the election.