In the last month, Turkish officials in Ankara were deeply concerned about the regional escalation between Israel and IRAN.

In several speeches, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of trying to extend its war from Gaza to Turkey’s borders and said the region was engulfed in a “ring of fire” that could threaten Turkey’s territorial unity.

Many in Turkey did not take Erdogan’s remarks about Israeli territorial expansion seriously. Israel’s focus appears to be on Iran and its allies, including potential strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and oil infrastructure.

And then something beyond shocking happened: Erdogan’s nationalist ally Devlet Bahceli, a key member of the ruling coalition and chairman of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), called public for his enemy to speak in parliament.

After three weeks of overtures to Turkey’s opposition and the pro-Kurdish People’s Democracy and Equality Party (Dem), Bahceli said Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), must be allowed to give a speech to calls on the armed group to disarm.

Bahceli also added that by doing so, Ocalan could be allowed to use an exception under the European Convention on Human Rights to be released from prison early.

The MHP leader also said a new wave of democratic and economic reforms could be used to satisfy the Kurdish electorate in the process of ending Turkey’s decades-long conflict with the PKK.

“Strengthen the Home Front”

As Bahceli delivered his speech, which he called a development that could change the course of Turkish history, everyone in Ankara began to wonder: why now?

All the experts interviewed by Middle East Eye said they did not believe Ankara took the step for immediate political benefits, such as a new constitution that would allow Erdogan to serve another term in 2028.

“The ruling elites in Ankara see Israel as a destabilizing force in the region and anticipate a possible Iran-Israel conflict,” Asli Aydintasbas, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institute think tank in Washington, told MEE.

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“To strengthen the domestic front, they are considering addressing the Kurdish issue through an agreement with Ocalan and eventually the PKK, recognizing the importance of stability within their own borders.”

Aydintasbas added that addressing the long-standing Kurdish issue would reduce Turkey’s main vulnerability in the region, where it would no longer be permanently tied to operations and security concerns.

“More critically, Turkey sees PKK-affiliated Kurdish forces inside Syria and Iraq as potential tools for its rivals, particularly Israel and Iran, and wants to neutralize that threat,” she said.

Since 2016, Turkey has led a series of offensives in northern Syria that have denied Syrian Kurdish PKK affiliates a continuous stretch of territory along the border with Turkey.

Turkish armed forces captured Jarablus, Afrin, al-Bab and other strategic border towns and have since occupied them with the help of allied Syrian rebels.

Meanwhile, intense ground and air campaigns have pushed the PKK from Iraq’s northern borders with Turkey, allowing Ankara to establish several military outposts in Iraqi Kurdistan to prevent infiltrations.

Mesut Yegen, a professor specializing in Kurdish culture, told MEE that the Turkish government believes it is in a “position of strength” and noted that the 2023 elections showed that Kurdish voters are no longer the ones who they were in domestic politics before. .

However, Yegen says the government has yet to achieve all of its goals in northern Iraq because of political disagreements with Baghdad. Meanwhile, PKK affiliates were still dominant in northeastern Syria with US support.

“Iranian Influence Declining”

Internal Kurdish representation in Turkey is strong, he noted, with the Dem party becoming the third largest in parliament.

“The Kurds may find more space for themselves as Iran’s influence declines in the region” because of Israeli attacks on the Iranian-led Resistance Axis alliance, Yegen said.

“Ankara does not want the PKK to take advantage of this power vacuum (created by Israel) since October 7.”

“Ruling elites in Ankara see Israel as a destabilizing force in the region and anticipate a possible Iran-Israel conflict”

– Asli Aydintasbas, Brookings Institution

Turkish political elites increasingly understand the Kurdish insurgency as an endless conflict with no clear end, Aydintasbas added.

Yildiray Ogur, a Turkish journalist who closely follows Kurdish developments, told MEE that the 2015 peace process with the PKK failed because the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a Syrian force perceived by Turkey as indistinguishable from the PKK, succeeded to seize large swathes of territory in northern Syria with the help of Iran and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad, who easily relinquished control at the time.

Many in Ankara continue to accuse Iran of undercutting peace talks by encouraging the growth of the YPG.

Ogur says Israel’s war against Lebanon, where it struck Hezbollah and killed most of its top leadership, “broke the Iranian nails” in the region, as Tehran is more concerned with the prospect of immediate and direct escalation with Israel.

He added this time that the Turkish government is specifically focusing on disarming the PKK in Turkey, similar to how the group ended its armed struggle in Iran in 2011.

“Bahceli is risking his entire career for this,” he told MEE. “Everyone should treat Bahceli’s statements for the possible release of Ocalan as public gestures and guarantees to ensure Ocalan’s confidence in the process.”

However, Bahceli’s proposal will not be easy. The PKK attack against a Turkish defense company on Wednesday, a day after Bahceli’s speech, killed five people and spoiled the mood. The PKK later announced that the attack was carried out unilaterally by gunmen and was not a response to Bahceli’s call.

“Little choice but to coexist”

Roj Girasun, a political pollster, said that while Bahceli’s status as a leader of Turkish nationalism legitimizes the new initiative in the eyes of the public, the vast majority of society has become more Turkish nationalist over the past 10 years.

The PKK’s high-tech missiles fuel Turkey’s suspicion of an Iranian role

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He said Bahceli wants the process to bear fruit very quickly, as Omer Ocalan, a Dem party deputy and grandson of Abdullah Ocalan, was allowed to visit the jailed PKK leader for the first time in four years.

“This time, the process will focus on bringing more democratic rights and freedoms to the Kurds, but also more welfare,” Girasun told MEE.

“The government can use existing laws to strengthen Kurdish cultural rights, such as those regarding language or establishing more Kurdish institutions in universities.”

Girasun said Kurds mostly demand mother-tongue education in schools, and polls indicate it is a demand that has the most support among the Turkish public compared to other Kurdish issues.

There are also others who believe that Kurdish society at large needs to be convinced that the government-led process is a genuine effort and that Selahattin Demirtas, a popular Kurdish leader in prison, should be allowed to play a role.

For example, Kani Torun, a former ambassador and deputy of the opposition Future Party, told MEE that the government should consider taking steps to strengthen Kurdish civilian politics and hire Demirtas to create a public narrative to counter the perception that the PKK’s armed struggle is the only option for Turkey’s Kurds.

“There could be car accidents during the negotiations and public opinion should be taken care of,” he said. “And there must be a rapprochement of the (Kurdish) elements in northern Syria.”

Torun says that if the initiative succeeds, the government could try to implement its new constitutional project in the future.

Girasun, on the other hand, said that Kurdish democratic political representation could emerge as the ultimate winner in the process, as Demirtas could sway the Kurdish public against the armed struggle.

But, Yegen warns, if the new initiative fails, the government could resume the tough security-focused methods it has used against the PKK and its offshoots.

“Turks and Kurds have no choice but to coexist, given the significant Kurdish populations in Turkey and beyond its borders in Syria and Iraq,” Aydintasbas said.