close
close

Association-anemone

Bite-sized brilliance in every update

    • Here’s who’s winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls
    asane

    Here’s who’s winning in the latest Trump-Harris presidential polls

    Online Niel Posted on

    The top line

    Vice President Kamala Harris has a single-digit lead over former President Donald Trump in two new national polls Sunday, but a third poll is hot — as polls show a virtually even race for the White House marked by tossups in all seven . cradle stateskeeping the race wildly unpredictable as the election nears.

    Key facts

    Harris has a two-point lead, 49%-47%, in one Morning Consult survey likely voters came out Sunday within a margin of error of one point — a slight tightening of the race, as Harris led by three points last week and by four points in two previous Morning Consult polls.

    The vice president has a similar three-point lead 49%-46% in one ABC/Gypso poll, compared to her 51%-47% lead. last week and her margin of 50%-48% in early October.

    Meanwhile, year NBC News poll shows the two candidates tied at 49%, with the remaining 2% still uncertain.

    Harris is up 49%-48% lately HarrisX/Forbes poll of likely voters were released Thursday, but about 10 percent of likely voters and 16 percent of all registered voters could still change their minds.

    Harris also leads Trump 49%-47% among likely voters in one Economist/YouGov survey came out Wednesday with 2% undecided and about 3% supporting other candidates (margin of error 3.6) — a slight drop from Harris’ 49%-46% lead last week.

    Harris is up 51%-47% – with just 3% still undecided – in a very high likely voter poll by the Cooperative Election Study, a multi-university poll conducted by YouGov that polled around 50,000 people between October 1 and 25.

    The widely watched Times poll represented a drop in support for Harris since the paper’s previous poll in early October showed her with a 49%-46% lead over Trump — and the paper called the results ” I’m not encouraging” to Harris as Democrats won the award. the popular vote in recent elections even when they lost the White House.

    Trump is ahead 48% to 46% in one CNBC poll of registered voters was released Thursday (margin of error 3.1), and he leads 47 percent to 45 percent in a Wall Street Journal The poll of registered voters was released Wednesday (margin of error 2.5) — a shift in Trump’s favor since August, when Harris led 47% to 45% in a Journal poll.

    Harris has erased Trump’s lead over Biden since announcing her candidacy on July 21, though her lead has shrunk over the past two months to 3.7 points in late August, according to FiveThirtyEight. weighted average of the survey.

    Important reminder: Presidential polls have been frequently wrong

    And there’s a lot of speculation about how they’re going wrong this year — and who they might benefit. Read all about it in this story.

    Who do the polls predict will win the election, Harris or Trump?

    Trump is favored to win the Electoral College 53 times out of 100, compared to 47 for Harris, according to FiveThirtyEight. electoral forecast. Statistician Nate Silver’s model shows Trump with a 51.5% chance of the gain.

    Big number

    1 point. That’s Harris’ average lead over Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average. Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ poll average It shows Trump by 0.2 and Nate Silver has Harris by 0.9 points Forecast of the Silver Bulletin.

    How does Harris fare against Trump in the Swing States?

    Harris enters Michigan and Wisconsinand Trump leads Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevadaaccording to the survey averages carried out by the Silver Bulletin. That means Trump would win the electoral college if the polling of every swing state is completely accurate — but many of the seven swing states, including crucial Pennsylvania, have margins of less than one percentage point.

    Surprising fact

    A survey from NBC News published Sept. 29, found that while Harris still leads Trump among Latinos, the lead is shrinking. The NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll — which was conducted Sept. 16-23 among 1,000 registered Latino voters — found that 54 percent support Harris, compared to 40 percent who support Trump and 6 percent who they said they were not sure who they would vote for. Support for Harris is higher than it was when Biden ran against Trump, NBC said, but is still significantly smaller than past gains for Democratic candidates, including a 36-point lead in polls in 2020 and by 50 points in the 2016 polls. The poll had a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.

    How has the debate affected the polls?

    Pre-debate polls found Harris’ vote surge appeared to be reaching a pay level, including an NPR/PBS/Marist study of registered voters taken Sept. 3-5, which showed Harris leading Trump 49 percent to 48 percent, down from a three-point lead in August. Most post-debate polls show that most respondents believe Harris won the debate, but not enough to significantly impact the horse race between the two. A New York Times/Siena POLL of likely voters released on Sept. 19 found that a majority of voters across all demographics gave positive reviews of Harris’ performance in the Sept. 10 debate, with 67 percent overall saying he did well, compared to 40 percent who said the same about Trump. Harris was up 52%-46% among likely voters and 51%-47% among registered voters in a ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days after the Sept. 11-13 debate, virtually unchanged from her six-point lead with likely voters in the end of August and the beginning of August ABC/Ipsos polls — even though 63% of Americans said Harris won the debate.

    Key background

    Biden abandoned of the race on July 21, after resisting calls from within his own party for weeks to end his re-election bid following his disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. He approved immediately Harris and she have announced plans to seek the nomination. The party quickly rallied around her, with 99 percent of Democratic delegates voting to officially nominate her in a virtual roll call ahead of the Democratic National Convention in August. Harris named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as his running mate, weeks after Trump announced Ohio Sen. JD Vance as his running mate. ABC News hosted the first debate between Harris and Trump on September 10 in Philadelphia. Harris’ rise in the polls is coupled with an increase in Democratic enthusiasm for the election, which has almost doubled since Harris entered the race, from 46 percent in June to 85 percent now, while enthusiasm among Republicans has remained stagnant at 71 percent, according to a Monmouth University. POLL released on August 14.

    Further reading

    New HarrisX/Forbes poll: Trump leads Harris by 2 points, but 12% still decide (Forbes)

    State polls for 2024 election: Latest polls show Trump up in Nevada, Georgia (Update) (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Nevada 2024 polls: Trump up 1 point in latest poll as Harris battles Latinos (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Georgia polls in 2024: Trump leads in latest poll, but undecided voters could deliver (Forbes)

    Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris polls: Trump up 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Michigan 2024 polls: Harris leads narrowly in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Pennsylvania 2024 Polls: Harris leads crucial state in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris Wisconsin 2024 Polls: Harris leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Trump-Harris North Carolina 2024 Polls: Trump leads by 3 points in latest poll (Forbes)

    Online Niel
    View all posts

    You Might Also Like