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    • Here’s who’s leading the presidential race
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    Here’s who’s leading the presidential race

    Online Niel Posted on

    The top line

    Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are dead — even in Michigan in the latest poll, as three others this week show them with a slight lead and two show Trump ahead — indicating the race remains razor thin in the three “blues”. wall” states that could solidify a victory Tuesday for either candidate.

    Key facts

    Trump and Harris are tied at 47 percent in Michigan among likely voters in the latest New York Times/Siena study released Sunday (margin of error 3.5 points).

    Harris has a three-point lead over Trump, 51%-48%, in a Marist POLL released Friday, taking into account likely voters who are undecided but leaning toward a candidate (3.5-point margin of error), representing a slight decline from her five-point lead in the September Marist poll.

    Trump is up 47%-45% in a Washington Post POLL eliminated on Thursday (margin of error 3.7 points) and the race is tied at 49% in a two-way Fox News poll of likely voters released Wednesday (margin of error three points).

    Harris was up 51%-46% in a poll of likely voters by the Cooperative Election Survey ISSUED earlier this week (2,336 respondents, part of a large nationwide study supported by universities and carried out by YouGov).

    The vice president also had a 48%-43% lead in a CNN/SSRS Wednesday poll (margin of error 4.8).

    Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris 49%-48% in one The Emerson Survey came out Tuesday (margin of error 3 points) after the two were tied in the group’s previous poll, released Oct. 10, and Harris led Trump in September and August polls.

    Quinnipiac University POLL of likely voters released on October 23 shows Harris with 49% and Trump with 46%, reversing Trump’s fortunes after their poll earlier this month showed it up 50%-47% (margin of error 2.9 points, and respondents could choose third-party candidates).

    Despite some good polls for Harris in recent weeks, most polls show an increasingly tight race in Michigan, a key state given his 15 electoral votes: FiveThirtyEight’s average shows Harris leading by 0.7 points.

    Models of FiveThirtyEight and statistician Nate Silver gave Harris the narrowest of margins in Michigan, estimating a roughly 60 percent chance of winning the state.

    Harris’ clearest path to victory runs through Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, known as the “blue wall” states — if he wins all three, which represent 44 electoral votes, plus all the other non-swing states won by Biden in 2020, she will reach the threshold of 270 electoral votes needed to win the election.

    Biden won Michigan by three points in 2020 after Hillary Clinton lost to Trump there in 2016 by less than a point, making her the first Democrat to lose to a Republican presidential candidate in Michigan since 1988.

    What are the key demographic groups in Michigan?

    The Harris campaign largely attributes its success to improved numbers among white and black working-class voters in Michigan — home to the largest black U.S. city, Detroit, and a significant population of traditionally supportive union voters the Democratic presidential candidates. The data shows that Harris has made inroads among white college-educated voters — a key demographic for Trump — since Joe Biden’s exit from the race, even though Trump leads the group by double digits. Support for Democrats among black voters — who typically vote for the party by large margins — has eroded somewhat of 2020, though Harris appears to have regained some support in Michigan, according to a Times/Siena poll that showed 75 percent of black voters would vote for her in September. studycompared to 49% who said the same about Biden in May. Meanwhile, Trump has attacked the Biden-Harris administration’s policies to promote a transition to electric vehicles in Michigan, home to the “Big Three” automakers, saying they pose a threat to the auto industry and Michigan’s workforce.

    Why do Union endorsements matter in Michigan?

    Michigan households with a union member were more likely to vote for a Democratic presidential candidate than union households nationwide in the past three presidential elections, Reuters reportedciting polling firm Edison Research. The endorsement of Harris by the United Auto Workers was considered a blessing to her candidacy in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. However, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and the International Association of Firefighters’ decisions not to endorse anyone, after endorsing Biden in 2020 and historically supporting Democrats, were widely seen as blows to Harris.

    Will Arab-American voters break with Kamala Harris in Michigan?

    Michigan has a sizable Arab-American population, many of whom have been angered by the Biden-Harris administration’s continued support for Israel in its war in Gaza. Recent POLL for the Arab-American Institute by John Zogby Strategies appears to show that the Biden administration’s handling of the crisis has badly hurt his support among the demographic, with those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats split at 38% compared to 40% who identify as Democrats and 32% who identify as Republicans in 2020. The pro-Palestinian group “Uncommitted”—which encouraged primary voters not to support Biden in Michigan and other key states — yet he did not support Harris it was said this week they consider Trump worse than Harris.

    Tangent

    Democrats control all three branches of state government in Michigan for the first time since the 1980s.

    Key background

    Trump led Biden in Michigan in polls by a narrow margin before Biden dropped out of the race. The state’s popular Democratic governor, Gretchen Whitmer, co-chairwoman of Biden and Harris’ campaigns, is seen as a key asset in helping Harris repeat Whitmer’s own success in the state, where he won two elections by double digits, growing -a. margins in the 2022 election while campaigning for abortion rights following the reversal of Roe v. Wade. Abortion, while still a high priority for voters, has lost some of its political weight in 2022, however, as other issues, including ongoing inflation and the Israel-Hamas war, also shape decisions to vote.

    Cons

    A victory for Harris over the “blue wall” hinges on winning Nebraska’s second congressional district and his single electoral vote. The district is an outlier in the state because it typically votes for a Democrat for president. Nebraska is only one of two states that uses a piecemeal approach to allocating electoral votes instead of a winner-takes-all approach. A last-minute GOP-backed effort to change the rule recently failed to gain the traction it needed to succeed in the state legislature.

    Further reading

    Trump vs. Harris Polls 2024: Harris Maintains Lead in 4 New Polls (Forbes)

    2024 election various polls: Harris leads by 1 point in 7 battlegrounds in latest poll (Forbes)

    These demographics could decide the Trump-Harris race in the 7 battleground states (Forbes)

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