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Trump leads Harris in Iowa in new poll from Emerson College

Online Niel November 3, 2024

Former President Trump leads Vice President Harris by 10 points in Iowa, according to a new poll released on Saturday.

The new poll, from Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense, found the Republican nominee leading by 10 points, 53 percent to 43 percent, among likely Iowa voters just three days before Election Day. About 3 percent were undecided, while 1 percent said they planned to vote third-party.

Trump had the edge among likely voters in Iowa, men and women. He led by 5 points, 51 percent to 46 percent, among women. The gap was wider among men, where he was ahead by 17 points, 56 percent to 37 percent, according to the poll.

The GOP candidate took a 17-point lead among Iowa independents, winning 53 percent to Harris’ 36 percent.

Harris had the edge among the younger electorate, beating Trump by 8 points, 54 percent to 46 percent, among voters under 30. The former president topped all other age groups. According to the poll, the vice president has built a 7-point lead among voters with graduate degrees, taking 52 percent to Trump’s 45.

The Emerson College poll came out the same day as the new Des Moines Register/Mediacom study which found Harris 3 points ahead of Trump among likely Iowa voters. Harris led Trump by 28 points, 57 percent to 29 percent, among female independent voters. Trump had a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, with independent voters.

The Trump campaign said the Des Moines Register poll was an “outstanding poll” and referenced the Emerson College poll.

The former president won Iowa in both 2016 and 2020 by 9 points and 8 points, respectively. Former President Obama was the last Democratic candidate to win Iowa, carrying the Hawkeye state in 2012.

The Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense poll was conducted Nov. 1-2 among 800 likely Iowa voters. It had a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.

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