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If Canadians could vote in a US election, a majority would choose to send Kamala Harris to the White House.

In a new survey by polling firm Leger, 64 percent of Canadian respondents said that if they could vote, they would support their vice president Harris, while 21 percent would support former President Donald Trump. Fifteen percent were not sure what they would do.

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Those planning to vote Conservative in Canada’s next election were split by where their hypothetical vote would land. Forty-five percent would support Trump, while 42 percent said they would vote for Harris.

Canadians 55 and over, Quebeckers and women were more likely to support Harris.

The slim race to the Oval Office is less than two weeks from the finish line after a tumultuous campaign season that saw President Joe Biden drop his name from the Democratic ticket, a surge of support around Harris and two assassination attempts on Trump.

Seventy per cent of Canadian respondents to the new survey were interested in the current US election, with liberal voters and people aged 55 and over more likely to be captivated by the American political saga.

The US is Canada’s closest neighbor and largest trading partner. Over 77% of Canadian exports go to the US, and 60% of Canada’s gross domestic product comes from trade.

Both Republicans and Democrats have protectionist policies that could have ripple effects across Canada.

Trump has proposed a blanket 10 percent tariff as the centerpiece of his agenda. A report by the Canadian Chamber of Commerce suggested the duties suggested by the Republican leader would reduce the size of the economy by between 0.9 and 1 per cent, resulting in around $30 billion a year in economic costs.

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Harris is expected to follow in the footsteps of President Biden, who kept the tariffs in place from the first Trump administration despite promises to reverse them. Harris is also likely to continue the Biden administration’s procurement rules.

Harris campaigned on his vote against the Canada-US-Mexico Agreement, saying it did not do enough to protect American workers and the environment. Both Republicans and Democrats have said they will push for an overhaul of the trilateral trade pact in 2026.

Sixty-two percent of Canadians said they believed a Harris victory would be the best outcome for Canada.

Canadians polled said Harris would do better than Trump on all issues, particularly climate change, trade relations with Canada, immigration and the US economy.

Respondents also said they thought the vice president would do better with national security and the current conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East.

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A majority of Canadians – 65 per cent – ​​were concerned about potential violence and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the election.

Trump has refused to publicly commit to accepting the results of the upcoming White House election. He recently called the Jan. 6 attack, when his supporters stormed Capitol Hill after his 2020 loss, “a day of love.”

While most Canadians are interested in the outcome of their next-door neighbor’s election, that doesn’t mean they’ll be watching it all unfold.

Forty-two percent said they would not watch election night but would watch the results afterward. Fifteen percent have no interest.

The Leger survey gathered information from 1,562 Canadian adults in an online survey between October 18 and 21. The survey cannot be assigned a margin of error because online surveys are not considered truly random samples.

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