Donald Trump has suffered a blow to his campaign, with three new polls showing him trailing his opponent Kamala Harris in key battlefield states crucial to his path to victory.

According to the latest set of Marist polls, conducted Oct. 27-30, Harris leads Trump in the Blue Wall states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

For Donald Trump to win the election, he must topple one of these three Harris Blue Wall states. That’s because if Harris manages to keep these three states that Biden won in 2020, plus the very likely single electoral college vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, then he will have exactly the 270 electoral college votes he needs to win the election. as the map below shows.

The polls were very close all three statesand the FiveThirtyEight poll currently shows Harris leading Michigan and Wisconsin by less than a point, while Trump leads Pennsylvania by 0.7 points after Harris previously led him in the state.

Meanwhile, individual polls in all three states fluctuated, with candidates generally staying within a 3-point margin. However, the four most recent polls in Pennsylvania show Trump holding a 1- to 3-point lead among likely voters.

But the latest Marist polls show a more positive outlook for the incumbent vice president, with Harris leading by 3 points in Michigan and 2 points in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Her lead in all 3 states is within the poll’s margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.

It comes as Harris has opened up a lead among independent voters in all 3 states, according to the poll. In Michigan, she leads Trump among independents by 6 points, up from 2 points in the previous Marist poll in September. In Wisconsin, she also leads among independents by 6 points, up from the four-point lead she had at the start of September. Meanwhile, in Pennsylvania, Harris has seen a huge increase in her support among independents, with the vice president now leading by 15 points after Trump led independent voters by 4 points in September.

Harris performs better Joe BidenHer 2020 performance among independents by 6 points in Pennsylvania, while her lead among independents is equal to Biden’s in Michigan in 2020. In Wisconsin, she is still well below the double-digit lead that Biden had against Trump in 2020.

Overall, Harris’ margins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have grown since September, when the previous Marist poll showed her ahead by just 1 point in Wisconsin, while the two candidates were tied in Pennsylvania. But her lead has shrunk by 2 points in Michigan since September, when she was 5 points ahead.

However, “the takeaway from the presidential numbers in Michigan is that there are more voters who have a better impression of Harris than Trump,” said Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Trump’s favorability rating is reversed. His negative rating significantly exceeds his positive rating.”

In Michigan, 43 percent of residents have a favorable opinion of Trump, compared to 53 percent who have an unfavorable opinion of him. For Harris, her favorability rating is 48%, while 47% have a negative view of her.

Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.

With less than a week to go, the election seems closer than ever. Poll aggregators currently suggest Harris is winning the popular vote, while Trump is on track to win the Electoral College, which would send him back to the Oval Office. sounding Nate SilverHis forecast shows that Harris is 1.1 points aheadd, with a 74 percent chance of winning the popular vote. However, due to Trump’s position in swing states, his forecast shows Harris has a 46% chance of winning the Electoral College compared to Trump’s 54% chance.

Meanwhile, 538 shows Harris ahead by 1.4 points nationally, but gives Trump a 52 percent chance of winning to Harris’ 48 percent. According to both aggregators, Trump is leading in North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Pennsylvania, which would give him enough Electoral College votes to send him to the White House.

However, if Harris were to win Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as Nebraska’s 2nd District, she would get enough Electoral College votes to win the election.

Silver’s forecast shows Trump has a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven swing states on November 5.