Lisa Desjardins:

There is a gender gap in these early votes. Right now, we’re seeing a lot more women than men voting, in fact, by 10 points.

That’s something the Harris campaign likes. We see in the polls, including our October poll, that Harris really dominates with women. They believe that the more women vote, the higher the proportion, the better it is for her.

Now, I will note that this is the same proportion that we saw in 2020 in that election. Joe Biden, of course, won in part because of the gender gap in this election. Now, these are just early votes. We don’t know if these women are necessarily Democrats or Republicans.

And I will say that there is reason to believe that there are more Conservative women voting this year. And I’ll show you why, at least early on. In 2020, if you look at the data for rural and urban voters, it was about the same proportion of early votes.

But look at this year. Look what we have, a gap, with rural voters making up a much larger share of the early vote than they did in 2020. And I can testify that being in Georgia, Virginia, that definitely has to do with Trump and his campaign that pushes to try. and turn out their red voters, especially in rural areas.

They certainly appear. Now the question is, are these new voters or are these voters who would have voted anyway, just do it earlier?