Ashton Jeanty looks to bolster his Heisman campaign as the Boise State Broncos playoff weapon with a home matchup against the San Diego State Aztecs tonight.

The Broncos are hot on a five-game winning streak, including last week’s 29-24 victory over UNLV, but they can’t overlook a fired-up Aztec team that is 2-0 in Mountain West play.

See why my San Diego State vs. Boise State thinks the Aztecs are going to give me a hard time college football picks for Friday, November 1, which also includes an Ashton Jeanty prop.

Kickoff is set for 8:00 PM ET from Albertsons Stadium in Boise, with the game televised on FS1. Be sure to check out our favorite too San Diego State vs. Boise State prop!

San Diego State vs Boise State prediction and best bet

My best bet
San Diego State +23.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

My analysis

This is not a great place for Boise State Broncos as it is a disappointing opportunity after last week’s massive win over UNLV. The Broncos are riding a five-game winning streak and could certainly challenge for a playoff spot the way things are going, but that’s a lot of points to put up against a San Diego State Aztecs team that plays pretty good football.

If the Broncos want to be a playoff team, they will need to shore up some things on the defensive side of the ball. They rank just 103rd in EPA per game and 125th in explosiveness, struggling to defend the run (116th in EPA per run, 128th in rushing explosiveness) while allowing too many big passing plays (104th in passing explosiveness).

They played well enough on that side of the ball, holding the Rebels to 23 points, but I’ll have to see him on a weekly basis before I’m a believer. It makes sense for the coaching staff to formulate an effective game plan in the biggest test of the regular season, but a dropout could always be around the corner in an upset spot.

The Aztecs were supposed to be miserable in Year 1 of the Sean Lewis era. That just hasn’t been the case as they are bowled and 2-0 in conference play.

The defense has been on point, holding each of its last three opponents under 385 total yards. He’s only allowed one opponent more than 5.5 yards per game all year, so there’s hope that SDSU can at least slow down a great Boise offense.

The Aztecs should be able to fill the box to help shore up the rushing defense. The secondary has been superb (20th in passer success rate, 29th in PFF coverage grade) and should match up well with a Boise receiving group that has been merely adequate. Target Cam Camper was blocked last week and so likely won’t be 100% for this contest, meaning the Broncos’ two best players are playing poorly (more on Ashton Jeanty in a bit).

Give me the points. SDSU usually plays in close games as each of its last four games has been decided by three points or less.

Choose Ashton Jeanty: Elbow rub

My best bet
Under 186.5 yard drive (-115 at BetMGM)

My analysis

One of the takeaways from the Broncos’ win over UNLV a week ago is that Ashton Jeanty injured his elbow and played noticeably less than 100 percent for the rest of the contest.

It’s an injury that shouldn’t be overlooked or underplayed, as it neutralized one of his best weapons, his stiff arm, and he went for a season-low 3.9 yards per carry on 33 attempts mostly ineffective.

I’ll take them Under against an Aztec defense that played well.

San Diego State vs Boise State Same Game Parlay (SGP)

San Diego State +22.5

Ja’Shaun Poke Over 44.5 receiving yards

Matt Lauter Over 44.5 receiving yards

If you’ve followed Lewis teams for any amount of time, you know that his WR1 usually produces some crazy stat lines. That wasn’t the case during his first year in San Diego due to a passing attack struggling with a true freshman quarterback, but that’s starting to change.

Slot receiver Ja’Shaun Poke, who was with Lewis on a previous stop at Kent State, has emerged as a reliable weapon. The speedster leads the Aztecs in targets (21), receptions (18) and receiving yards (140) over the past two games, and yet his receiving yardage prop can be had in the 40s.

No other Boise wide receiver has 160 receiving yards other than Cam Camper (477). He was noticeably stalled a week ago, playing just 13 snaps and handling three targets in the Broncos’ biggest game of the season so far. Who steps up in his absence?

It’s tight end Matt Lauter, who was the second target in the passing game, racking up 297 yards and four touchdowns. He led the team with nine targets against UNLV, six more than any receiver on the team. That volume will translate, and his receiving media is simply too small.

Learn how to place a bet on the same game with these helpful tips and strategies.

San Diego State vs Boise State Odds

San Diego State vs Boise State live odds

San Diego State vs Boise State Opening Odds

• San Diego State vs. Boise State spread: Boise State -23.5
• San Diego State Mint Line Vs. Boise State: San Diego State +1,100, Boise State -2,500
• San Diego State vs. Boise State over/under: 57.5

Odds courtesy of him BetMGM

San Diego State vs Boise State spread and over/under analysis

• San Diego State is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings between these two schools.
• The Aztecs have been road warriors, covering the spread in five of their last six road games. They are also 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
• Boise State has played the Over, going 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games.

San Diego State vs Boise State betting trend to know

Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Find more college football betting trends for San Diego State vs. Boise State.

San Diego State vs Boise State Game Info

The latest San Diego State vs Boise State injuries

San Diego State vs Boise State Weather

Monitor game conditions with our help College Football Weather Information.

Pages related to this topic