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Job growth stagnates at 12,000 in October as hurricanes batter Southeast
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Job growth stagnates at 12,000 in October as hurricanes batter Southeast

The US added 12,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, according to data released by the Labor Department on Friday, reversing a series of strong economic data leading up to election day.

Economists were bracing for a sharp drop in job gains in October due to several large strikes – including the recall of more than 30,000 Boeing planes – and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton.

The sharp drop in job gains was caused in part by the “severe damage” caused by the hurricanes and their timing, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said Friday.

Hurricane Helene made landfall shortly before the BLS began surveys of households and businesses for the jobs report, and Hurricane Milton hit Florida during the survey period.

The BLS said it could not calculate how many jobs hurricanes and strikes took out of October’s total job gains.

“Wage employment estimates in some industries are likely to have been affected by the hurricanes,” the BLS wrote.

“However, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the month-over-month change in national estimates of employment, hours worked or earnings, as the establishment survey is not designed to isolate the effects of extreme weather events. “

Even so, the report fell well short of forecasters who had expected the U.S. to add about 115,000 jobs.

The BLS also revised August and September job gains down by a total of 112,000 jobs, another sign of a potential labor market slowdown.

“Markets can probably park the October jobs report. Quite clearly, the hurricane had a strong effect on the numbers, clouding the picture of labor market strength,” Seema Shah, global chief strategist at Principal Asset Management, wrote in an analysis.

“And yet, a deeper look at the numbers suggests that beneath all the noise and disruption is a fundamentally slowing labor market,” she continued, calling the report a “significant downside surprise.”

The new jobs data comes less than a week before Election Day and after millions of Americans have already cast their ballots.

Vice President Harris and former President Trump appear to be locked in a tight race for the White House, with polls showing no clear front-runner to succeed President Biden.

The economy has ranked among the top issues for voters since the start of Biden’s tenure, which has brought both a rapid recovery from the COVID-19 recession and high inflation.

Harris sought to highlight the record rebound from the recession under the Biden administration, along with the economy’s strength in the face of persistent recession fears.

Trump, however, maintained a constant lead over Harris among voters when it comes to who they trust more to handle the economy. He and GOP lawmakers tried to blame Biden and Harris for the rapid inflation seen earlier in his tenure, though price increases have since fallen back to historical norms.

The unexpectedly weak jobs report could give Trump a new line of attack against Harris and Democrats, although some experts said October’s jobs data was too choppy to truly reflect the economy for voters and investors.

“Trying to understand October’s labor situation from this jobs report, skewed by two major hurricanes and a major strike, is like trying to get GPS directions on a broken cell phone,” wrote Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. , in a Friday analysis.

“Best to trash this report and wait for a more accurate reading next month now that the weather has calmed down.”

Updated at 9:09 a.m. EDT

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