According to the United Nations, 2024 is “the biggest election year in human history”, with half the world’s population – some 3.7 billion people in 72 countries – to be able to vote. However, some elections are more important than others, which is why the world is watching as the US goes to the polls.

USA belongs to the world the largest economy and the the greatest military power. But it is also the lynchpin of many international strategic alliances, the economic and financial system, and many of the world’s liberal institutions.

This election is a pivotal moment in US history that could have massive implications for how the country is governed and the future of the postwar order that Washington helped build.

Unlike any election since 1945, the basic principles of US relations with the rest of the world are at stake. The choice is between Donald Trump’s Republican party potentially offering a complete break from the US role in the international community, compared to the more international agenda of Kamala Harris under the Democrats. Under Harris, the US will likely continue to play a significant role in NATO, for example.

Rates for China

The most obvious attack on the US foreign policy tradition is Trump’s plans to impose a one-size-fits-all policy. 20% tariff on all foreign imports. Tariffs for China could be much higher with threats from 60-200% Trump. Besides being inflationary and damaging to the US economy, such moves are likely to result in retaliation, trade wars and dislocation with the world economy. By limiting access to the world’s largest national market, they would also hinder global efforts to transition to a zero carbon economy.

Still, such matters are of little concern to Trump, who plans to repeat Washington’s withdrawal from the US The Paris Agreement on Climate Changerepeal Joe Biden’s environmental protections and authorize unrestricted exploitation of US oil and gas fields through unregulated fracking. Trump’s plans would add tons more carbon atmosphere if executed and could significantly undermine global action on climate change.

Also in the 2024 election is the US commitment to defend its friends and allies from hostile states. As a member of NATO, the US is obliged to come to the aid of other members according to article 5if another country attacks them and also has similar treaties with Japan and South Korea. The Biden administration has led NATO in supporting Ukraine with military and financial aid to prevent its total submission to Russian occupation.

Instead, Trump indicated he would end that support and pressure Kiev to accept peace Moscow terms. Instead of seeing a network of alliances as a basis of strength and influence, Trump sees them as a source of risk and a burden.

Defending friends

Many former officials, such as former national security adviser John Bolton, suspect Trump would try leave NATO in a second term or weaken its effectiveness by a warm support. In Asia, Trump’s recent comments that “Taiwan should pay for our defense. You know, we’re nothing but an insurance company” suggests a weakening of US commitment to the island.

For many observers, this election also matters because the ability of the US to conduct free, fair and uncontested elections and the peaceful transfer of power is called into question. Since his first involvement in the Republican primary process in 2016, Trump has never accepted the results of one elections he lost.

What is more remarkable is that he convinced the majority of Republican voters to side with him by stating that the 2020 election was stolenonly a third believe that the elections were legitimate. When trust in the electoral process is so undermined, it’s hard to see how the US can come together to govern after the election.

For the Trump camp, however, there is a ready answer to that question. If chosen, Project 2025a policy paper by a right-wing think tank, suggests his administration would replace the top tier of Washington’s bureaucracy with 50,000 officials who pledge loyalty to the constitution. It also suggests that a Trump administration would dismantle a multitude of federal agencies, such as the Justice, Energy and Education departments, as well as the FBI and the Federal Reserve, and use its newly reclaimed executive authority to impose its political agenda.

Such measures are designed to allow Trump to introduce a number of policies that many see as authoritarian, such as the deportation of millions of “illegal aliens,” using the National Guard and the military if necessary.

The American experiment with democracy has fascinated and inspired the world since its beginnings in 1776. Yet never before has it seemed in such danger. The US is deeply divided on many fundamental issues, from taxation, immigration, abortion, trade, energy and environmental policy, and role in the world.

For the first time, these divisions seem far more important to many voters than respect for their democratic institutions and traditions. More fundamentally, many American citizens seem unable to accept the outcome of the democratic process and the subsequent legitimacy of the winner. Who wins the election, and how the US is governed as a result, matters more now, to more people, than ever.

Author: David Hastings DunnProfessor of International Politics at the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham

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