FOX 2 – It’s been an exceptionally warm fall, and with winter just around the corner, many are thinking – “Are we going to pay for it this winter?”

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its Winter Outlook for this upcoming winter season, with La Niña influencing winter weather across the country.

What exactly does that mean? Well, La Niña means cooler water temperatures off the Pacific. This takes the jet stream north and carries it across the middle of the country through the Midwest.

This creates:

• Stormy and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest.
• Drier and warmer conditions in the south.
• Wetter than normal conditions in the Ohio Valley and parts of the Great Lakes.

The south is forecast to be dry. This year we have wetter than average conditions expected in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Pacific Northwest – meaning we could see rain and snow.

Wetter conditions don’t always mean snow – depending on the temperature, it could mean rain.

During La Niña winters, the Pacific Northwest typically sees below-average temperatures, with the South and NE remaining warm. There is no strong signal for warmer or cooler than average temperatures in the Great Lakes.

The average high temperature for the winter months in Southeast Michigan is 34.9 degrees and 21.8 for the low for the months of December, January and February.

Average snowfall is 35.4 inches, with December averaging about 9 inches, January 14 inches, and February 12.5 inches.

Last year we got about 6.5 inches of rain in the winter months.

Last winter was the fourth warmest on record, with temperatures around 35 degrees. We also only picked up 8 inches of snow, which is 6 inches below the seasonal average.

Seasonal forecasts are always tricky, but with La Niña in place, we’re likely to see a wetter winter.

This favors above normal snow range during cold snaps. But again, timing is everything. We will most likely catch more snow than last year.

Like most winters, expect to see cold spells and periods where we see heavy snow.