A notable Big Ten matchup finds defending champion Michigan hosting No. 1 seed Saturday. 1, Oregon. Let’s check in with the latest prediction for the game from an expert model who projects scores and picks winners.

Oregon is one of the few remaining undefeated teams in college football, averaging five touchdowns per game and exactly 300 yards passing and outscoring its last two opponents 73 to 9.

Michigan moved to 3-2 in Big Ten play after a win over rival Michigan State, but still lacks a vertical game, ranking 129th out of 134 FBS teams in passing efficiency and 110th at the score.

What do the analytics models suggest when the Wolverines and Ducks meet in this Big Ten matchup?

For that, let’s turn to the SP+ prediction model to get a preview of how Michigan and Oregon compare in this Week 10 football game.

So far, the models suggest a comfortable win for the Ducks over the Wolverines.

SP+ predicts Oregon to beat Michigan by a projected score of 32 to 19 and win the match with one estimated margin of 12.5 points.

The model gives the Ducks a 78 percent chance of total victory in the game.

SP+ is a “pace- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency” that attempts to predict game outcomes by measuring “the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football.”

How good is this season? So far, SP+ is 239-221-5 against the spread with a 51.9 winning percentage after going 28-27-1 (50.9%) last weekend.

Oregon is one favorite with 14.5 points against Michigan, according to updated lines posted at FanDuel Sportsbook.

FanDuel set the total at 45.5 points for the game (Over -108, Under -112).

And it lists the money line odds for Oregon at -720 and for Michigan at +490 to win outright.

If you use this prediction to bet on the game, you should take…

So far, a multitude of bettors are taking a different line, expecting the Ducks to dominate the Wolverines, according to the latest consensus spread picks for the game.

Oregon arrives 66 percent of bets to win the game and cover the big margin of points.

Other 34 percent Project betting Michigan will either win outright in the upset or keep the game under 2 touchdowns in a loss.

Michigan is the only team in college football with a Average score margin of 0.0 points this season.

Oregon fared better, with an average 20.7 points better than its 2024 opponents.

Over the past three games, those averages have diverged as Oregon has played 21.7 points better than its opponents during that time, while Michigan was 5.7 points worse.

And those numbers separate again when it comes to place: Michigan it is 4 points better than home opposition, while Oregon is 30.3 points better when you play on the road.

Most other analytical models also suggest a comfortable win for the Ducks on the road.

This includes the College Football Power Index, a computer prediction model that uses data points from both teams to simulate games 20,000 times to pick winners.

Oregon is expected to win the game by a majority 77.8 percent of the latest computer simulations of the match.

That leaves Michigan as the presumptive winner the rest of the way 22.2 percent of sense.

In all, the Ducks came out ahead in 15,560 of the game’s index calculations, while the Wolverines edged out Oregon in the other 4,440 of the predictions.

How does this translate into an expected margin of victory in the game?

Oregon is designed to be 11.3 points better than Michigan on the same field in the latest simulations of the game and both teams head-to-head, according to that model’s forecast.

Oregon is first among Big Ten teams with one 87.6 percent chance to qualify for the College Football Playoff according to FPI metrics.

This model gives the Ducks an overall win prediction 11.6 games this season.

Michigan ranks seventh in the Big Ten with a 0.1 percent shot in the playoffs, but it should be in the postseason, at 88.3 percent likely to play in a bowl game.

The index predicts that UM will win 6.3 games in ’24.

When: Saturday, November 2
Time: 3:30 pm ET | 12:30 PT
TV: CBS network

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Game odds are periodically updated and subject to change.

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