31.10.2024

Six days until Election Day, the presidential race is nearly tied in the Keystone State, according to the latest UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion and YouGov poll. Vice President Kamala Harris has 48 percent of likely voters, while former President Donald Trump has 47 percent of Pennsylvania’s 800 likely general election voters.

Noting the closeness of the race, political science assistant professor Rodrigo Castro Cornejo, associate director of the Center for Public Opinion, said, “It’s increasingly likely that this election will be won or lost because of turnout. The party that is able to effectively mobilize its voters will be the one that will secure the 19 electoral votes in Pennsylvania.”

No other candidate received more than 1 percent of poll respondents’ support, while 4 percent said they were undecided. The race remains largely unchanged from a previous UMass Lowell and YouGov poll released earlier this month that showed Harris at 46 percent and Trump at 45 percent.

One sign that the race remains anyone’s game is that voters rate candidates differently based on a variety of personal and political characteristics. More respondents said Trump would do a better job handling immigration policy (53%) than Harris (40%), while voters favor Harris’ abortion by 51% to 38%.

Simultaneous polls were released Thursday highlighting the outlook of likely voters in Michigan, New Hampshire and North Carolina. Complete data, including state race information, can be found at uml.edu/polls.

Pennsylvania US Senate Race
Sen. Bob Casey Jr. leads David McCormick in the U.S. Senate race, 48 percent to 42 percent, respectively. No other candidate received support from more than 2% of respondents and 7% remain undecided.

“Casey is relying on name recognition to carry the day, while McCormick is trying to bring home voters who just aren’t very familiar with him,” said Associate Professor of Political Science John Cluverius, director of research for the Opinion Center Public.

An Oct. 17 UMass Lowell poll showed 48 percent of likely voters backing Casey and 39 percent backing McCormick. In that poll, no other candidate received support from more than 1 percent of respondents, and 10 percent were undecided.

Additional survey questions covered attitudes about the economy, abortion, foreign policy, Taylor Swift, Gritty and a host of other Pennsylvania-centric topics.

The poll results released Thursday are the result of an online poll conducted from Wednesday, October 16 to Wednesday, October 23, 2024, which has a margin of error of plus/minus 3.73 percentage points.

The nonpartisan poll was independently funded by the University of Massachusetts Lowell. The poll was designed and analyzed by the university’s Center for Public Opinion and broadcast by YouGov. Detailed poll results, including toplines and full methodology, are available at www.uml.edu/polls.

The UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion presents events and polls on political and social issues to provide opportunities for civic engagement, experiential learning and real-world research. The Center is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) Transparency Initiative.

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Emily Gowdey-Backus, Director of Media Relations

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