Law enforcement unions and real estate interests are teaming up to finance an expensive campaign to defeat incumbent Los Angeles County District Attorney George Gascón and elect his challenger Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor and criminal defense attorney who promised to undo Gascón’s progressive policies.

The numbers exceed the amount of spending for Gascón, a reversal from four years ago, when criminal justice reformers across the country flooded his campaign coffers with cash and lifted the ex-cop-turned-reformer to victory.

Gascón is the nation’s most prominent progressive prosecutor, and the results of the race could be a benchmark for the criminal justice reform movement nationwide.

Much of the money will go toward campaign ads that depict a dystopian LA riddled with crime and homelessness and that blame Gascón for the problems — unfairly, according to his supporters and criminologists.

Outside committees working to help Hochman raised more than $7.2 million, compared to $605,000 for Gascón, according to an analysis by LAist.

A coalition led by the union representing LA County sheriff’s deputies is leading the way with $1.35 million in contributions to support Hochman.

“This has turned into our most important race in the county,” said Derek Hsieh, executive director of the Los Angeles Association of Deputy Sheriffs. The association also represents prosecutors’ investigators.

“It feels out of control on the streets for first responders,” Hsieh said.

Gascón’s supporters say they are hopeful despite Hochman’s huge spending.

“It’s still a relatively unknown office and both candidates are relatively unknown,” said the Rev. Zachary Hoover, who runs LA Voice Action, a multifaith community organization.

He added that Hochman would take office “back to tough-on-crime policies” that hurt black people and poor people.

Who are the donors?

Gascón’s agenda includes reducing mass incarceration by shortening prison time for people convicted of non-violent crimes and early release of people who are already incarcerated and deemed not to pose a danger to the public. And those are some of the reasons police unions in LA County and beyond are spending to take him down.

The Sacramento-based California Peace Officers Association — the union that represents state prison guards — has raised $500,000.

Gascón also faces opposition within his own office. The union representing front-line prosecutors who work for Gascón contributed $60,000 to the effort to defeat him in November. The union has been among the district attorney’s fiercest critics — of what some say are his heavy-handed management style as well as his policies.

Longtime Republican donor Gerald Marcil beats real estate spending to beat Gascón. He donated $450,000. Marcil runs Palos Verdes Investments, which owns apartment complexes around LA

“This election has the greatest effect on the quality of life in LA County of any other election,” Marcil said of the district attorney race. He is joined by six-figure donations from Douglas Emmett Properties and Kilroy Realty.

Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, who built and owns The Grove and The Americana malls, contributed $250,000 to support Gascón. He said the DA is to blame for the crime rate.

Violent crime rose 7 percent in 2023 from 2020 in LA, the year Gascon took office, according to the state Department of Justice. More recently, violent crime has seen a downward trend.

Property crime has increased by 20% over the same time frame and continues to rise.

But there are two big caveats. One is COVID. Crime has increased dramatically during the pandemic.

The other is that these are the crime trends we’ve seen across the country — in big cities, with and without progressive prosecutors.

“People feel uncomfortable in the neighborhoods around Los Angeles,” said Caruso, who is running for LA mayor in 2022.

One expert agreed that people feel uncomfortable about crime, but was unwilling to blame Gascón for the crime rate.

“I think district attorneys, who have a lot of power over individual outcomes, have much less influence on the overall crime rate than the police,” said Emily Owens, who chairs the criminology department at UC Irvine.

She noted that the crime rate is relatively low compared to previous decades and argued that some of the fear is based on one or two news stories that stir people up.

A different political environment

The police and real estate interests opposed Gascón when he first ran for office. The difference this time is that support for Gascón is lagging behind – especially after his poor performance in the primaries when he finished first but with only 25% of the vote.

Gascón was elected on a progressive agenda in a year that saw the killing of George Floyd by police in Minneapolis and widespread street protests calling for criminal justice reform nationwide.

Gascón attracted support from across the country. George Soros alone contributed $2.25 million. This year, Soros is sitting out.

Soros spokesman Michael Vachon said Soros’ attention is focused on the presidential contest.

“This reflects the unprecedented stakes facing the nation and should not be misconstrued as an abandonment of Gascòn or other local leaders who are implementing effective and humane approaches to public safety,” Vachon said in a statement. “Los Angeles County District Attorney Gascòn Has George Soros’ Endorsement”.

“A difficult battle” for Gascón

In a poll published earlier this month, Gascón trailed Hochman by a significant margin. The UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll, co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times, found that 51 percent of likely voters favored Hochman and 21 percent supported Gascón. Twenty-eight percent were undecided.

“Even the most principled of political donors are essentially investors when it comes down to it,” said Dan Schnur, who teaches political communications at the University of Southern California and UC Berkeley. “If I don’t see that investment has a chance to pay off, I don’t make it.”

When Gascón ran for district attorney four years ago, it was at a “singular moment” for the reform movement, Schnur said.

“Voters have been a lot more willing to explore reform efforts, and it’s not like they’ve turned their backs on those efforts, but they’re just a lot more cautious than they were four years ago,” he said.

Individually, Gascón collected far less than Hochman. Gascón raised about $870,000 to Hochman’s $4.6 million.

Gascón’s supporters remain confident they can overcome the deficit in the polls.

“There’s a large number of undecideds,” said Hoover of LA Voice Action.

A coalition led by Hoover’s group raised $605,000 to support Gascón. Half of the money comes from the Progressive Era PAC. Bay Area criminal justice reform advocate Quinn Delaney, Smart Justice California Action Fund and SEIU 2015 each invested $100,000.

Hoover called the race “an uphill battle” for Gascón.

“I’m a man of faith, so I try to practice hope,” he added.

LAist data reporter Maloy Moore contributed to this story.