Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to end federal disaster aid for the California wildfires if he returns to the White House, most recently at a campaign rally in Coachella and in remarks at his golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes.

Such a loss of federal funding would be a devastating blow to a state where wildfires have increased and become more destructive, in part due to climate change. A single severe fire season can accumulate tens of billions of dollars in damage, firefighting costs, and economic losses. The prospect of losing disaster aid has state officials and politicians scrambling for contingency plans ahead of next week’s election.

“This fits into Trump’s revenge agenda,” said Rep. John Garamendi (D-Walnut Grove). “He has vowed revenge on those who did not support him or who challenged him, California being one of several states.”

Trump has said he will withhold disaster funding if state officials don’t support his policies — most recently threatening to do so if Gov. Gavin Newsom doesn’t make more water available to farmers and homeowners.

“We’re going to take care of your water situation, we’re going to force it down his throat and say, Gavin, if you don’t do it, we’re not giving any of that fire money we’re sending you all. time for all the fire, the wildfires you have.” Trump said in Coachella.

The threats appear to be well founded. Presidents have tremendous discretion when it comes to disaster relief, which Trump has apparently wielded like a political sleight of hand during his presidency.

He initially refused to approve federal aid to California for wildfires in 2018 until a National Security Council staffer pointed out to him that Orange County has a dense concentration of supporters, according to a report from Politico’s E&E News. Trump also ignored a 2020 request for aid for the Washington state wildfires amid a feud with Gov. Jay Inslee, with the funds not coming until President Biden took office months later. the outlet reported.

“We’re building a history of this type of behavior becoming more than a threat,” said Brian Rice, president of the California Professional Firefighters. “It appears to be a potential reality. And it’s very worrying.”

The California Firefighters Association has endorsed Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris — breaking with its national union, which has endorsed neither candidate — in part because of Trump’s threats.

California and other states receive most federal fire aid through the Federal Emergency Management Agency, in a process dictated by the federal Stafford Act and a regulatory framework that implements the law. That includes individual assistance — direct payments and services to homeowners and renters whose properties have been damaged — and public assistance, which pays for things like search and rescue teams, debris removal and infrastructure repair.

To be eligible for such assistance, a state must demonstrate that an incident is of such gravity and magnitude that a response exceeds the state’s capacity. The governor must request and the president must declare a major disaster and then approve any aid the governor requests.

This is done through a step-by-step process where local, state and federal governments assess damages and ensure they meet certain financial thresholds. Based on this information, FEMA decides whether a federal disaster declaration is warranted and issues a recommendation to the president. Presidents have followed this recommendation in the past, but there is nothing in the law that compels them to do so.

Similarly, presidents are not required by law to consider certain factors when making a decision on disaster aid, and there is no requirement that they do so in a timely manner.

States can appeal aid denials, but the president ultimately decides the outcome of the appeal, said Matt Sedlar, a climate analyst at the Center for Economic and Policy Research who has studied how disaster relief funds are distributed. disasters.

“My main message is, yes, absolutely, bad things can happen in California if Trump acts on his threats,” he said.

Grant Douglas stops while evacuating as the Park Fire jumps on Highway 36 near Paynes Creek in Tehama County, California on July 26, 2024.

(Noah Berger/Associated Press)

A rejection of FEMA’s recommended disaster relief would generate political anger and likely lead to a lawsuit based on the arbitrary and capricious decision, said Garamendi, who sits on the Subcommittee on Economic Development, Public Buildings and Emergency Management, who conducts FEMA oversight. But it is not clear how the courts will decide.

“It would be a hell of a stink for members of Congress and the Senate to put a lot of pressure on the president, especially given what Trump has said is his agenda,” Garamendi said. “I guarantee it would happen: a political comeback and a trial.”

All states are susceptible to hazards, from storms and floods to wildfires and even terrorist attacks, that would make them eligible for federal assistance. Officials fear Trump will base his decisions on whether to approve aid on a state’s political leanings — for example, denying aid to California or Washington while approving money to states where his re-election campaign had strong support.

After Hurricane Michael hit Florida in 2018, Trump ordered FEMA to pay 100 percent of most of the state’s disaster costs instead of the usual 75 percent, resulting in $350 million more in federal aid than the state would have received without intervention. Politico reported.

According to Gov. Ron DeSantis’ autobiography, when he asked Trump for help, the then-president replied, “He must have won 90 percent of the vote there. Huge crowds. What do they need?”

California has been denied federal wildfire money in the past. In 2021, state officials spoke when Biden refused to provide individual assistance to victims of the Caldor firewhich destroyed more than 1,000 structures in the Sierra Nevada. The president declared a disaster and approved public assistance. But Biden’s decision was based on — not despite — a recommendation from FEMA, which said it considered the amount of destruction, residents’ insurance coverage and the state’s income and fiscal resources before determining the fire did not warrant individual aid. .

There is at least one notable exception: Fire Management Assistance Grants, which provide federal funding for up to 75 percent of eligible firefighting costs for major fires, do not require presidential approval. They must be approved only by a FEMA Regional Administrator. So far, the agency has approved nine of those grants to California this year.

However, the FEMA director and regional administrators are appointed by the president, making it possible for Trump to install officials who would do his bidding.

“There are many mechanisms by which the federal government can harm a state,” Sedlar said.

Experts believe that if a president rejects federal aid, state officials would look for alternatives. Some aid may continue to be available through other federal agencies, such as the Department of Transportation, which could help rebuild highways, erect road barriers and clear culverts, Garamendi said.

But the ultimate burden to make up the difference would fall to California, he and others said, raising the possibility of cutting other programs or funds to get the money.

Newsom recently Politico said that he is working with other officials to create plans in the state budget for an account that California can draw from to pay for disaster response if FEMA aid is no longer available under a future Trump presidency.

“You’re going to have serious cash flow problems even in a state as large as California, even with significant budget reserves,” the governor told reporters.

California’s need for federal disaster assistance over the next four years is virtually guaranteed. Requests for federal aid are a routine occurrence to deal not only with worsening wildfires but also with severe storms that have become more frequent as the West undergoes more extreme wet-to-dry shifts.

Already this year, Newsom has called for presidential disaster declarations for damage to landlords and tenants from Park fire in Northern California and Borel fire in Kern County, both of which are under review, FEMA said.

Biden also granted two major disaster declarations for severe storms in California. The first, received the green light on February 19 for storms and flooding in San Diego Countyresulted in more than $27 million in FEMA assistance for homeowners and renters.

The second, declared on April 13 for severe winter storms, tornadoes, floods and landslides in Glenn, Butte, Sutter, Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo, Santa Barbara, Ventura and Los Angeles counties, resulted in more than $5.1 million in FEMA assistance to communities that suffered damage to public infrastructure, according to the agency.

In some years, the dollar amount can be much higher. After California devastating fire season 2020when the state saw more acres burned than in any other year on record, FEMA approved more than $700 million in individual and public assistance.

To deny such aid based on political grudges would strike at the heart of the ancient system of mutual aid on which the country’s response to disasters has been based for hundreds of years, Rice said.

“Regional, state and federal support is everything — that’s how the United States works,” he said. “We don’t threaten each other. We don’t play with people’s lives.”

When this system is politicized, he added, it is the community members who are ultimately hurt.

“The California Legislature doesn’t lose anything, and neither does the City Council or the Board of Supervisors,” he said. “The people who live in California are threatened, the ones who suffer.”