The upcoming final jobs report ahead of November’s presidential election could paint a murky picture for the US economy.

Just four days before voters go to the polls, the federal government is set to release its final report on job growth and unemployment — a key economic update that could sway public opinion in the final moments of a closely contested presidential race. With the economy front and center in the campaign, data has the potential to shape last-minute voter perceptions as they cast their ballots.

However, Friday’s report is expected to show some of the most skewed monthly employment numbers seen in years, as October’s job growth was artificially suppressed by disruptions from hurricanes and major worker strikes. These temporary factors are likely to complicate efforts to gauge the true strength of the labor market heading into Election Day.

Future Jobs Report

Under normal circumstances, the monthly jobs report provides a clear picture of how the economy is performing. However, economists expect the October numbers to reflect a temporary slowdown in hiring, with estimates suggesting that Hurricanes Helene and Milton, along with the ongoing Boeing strike, likely reduced job growth by as much as 60,000 to 100,000. positions. Most of the losses are expected to be short-lived, and many workers anticipate returning to work once the disruptions pass.

Economists expect Friday’s report to show a modest gain of 120,000 jobs for October, according to estimates by data provider FactSet. While the figure reflects steady growth, it marks a sharp drop from September’s unexpectedly strong gain of 254,000 jobs. Despite the slowdown, the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at a historically low 4.1%, underscoring the continued resilience of the labor market despite recent disruptions.

Even after accounting for the temporary effects of hurricanes and labor strikes, the numbers suggest the labor market remains robust. Despite the Federal Reserve’s high interest rates, the economy continues to show unexpected resilience, driven in large part by strong consumer spending. This stability highlights the ability of the labor market to cope with disruptions and maintain momentum.

The Policy Implications of the Jobs Report

The former president Donald Trump and his allies have repeatedly criticized the president Joe Bidenhis administration as well as vice president Kamala Harrisfor rising inflation that peaked two years ago before easing gradually. Despite solid job growth, minimal layoffs and low unemployment, Trump continues to claim the US is a “failing nation.”

As part of his economic agenda, the former president pledged to impose high tariffs on all imported goods, arguing that the move would revitalize American industry and bring back millions of manufacturing jobs.

Meanwhile, the Harris campaign said it would focus more on the economy in the final week of the campaign, stressing economic stability and growth under Biden.

This article includes reporting from the Associated Press.