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New Economist/YouGov presidential poll: Harris with slim lead

Online Niel October 31, 2024

Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by more than a percentage point in a nine The Economist/YouGov poll was released on Wednesdaystill indicating a close race.

The poll of 1,446 registered voters found that 47% of registered voters either planned to vote for Harris or had already voted for her, while 46% indicated they supported Trump. Because of rounding, the gap is actually closer to two percentage points, the survey found. Harris’ lead among registered voters is within the poll’s margin of error (± 3.4 percentage points).

The poll was conducted between October 26 and October 29 and is the latest Economist/YouGov poll planned before the election.

“For a large proportion of voters, their election is over: 40% say they have already voted either by mail, absentee ballot or in person at a polling station – slightly higher than 37% of voters registered who say they will vote. at the polls on election day”, the conclusions show. The poll also shows that those who plan to vote in person favor Trump, while those who vote by mail favor Harris.

Things to consider about surveys

A survey’s margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results to be representative of the entire population.

When a candidate’s lead is “within” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.

Pew has, too found that most pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.

National polls usually show candidates running on the popular vote, but the election is likely to be decided by seven swing states because of Electoral College system. A recent one Bloomberg News/Morning Consult Polling of swing states also indicates that the candidates are in a close race.

Kinsey Crowley is a trending news reporter at USA TODAY. Contact her at [email protected] and follow her on X and TikTok @kinseycrowley.