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Europe tries to shore up Russia sanctions, fearing Trump’s review
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Europe tries to shore up Russia sanctions, fearing Trump’s review

BRUSSELS – European diplomats are preparing to back sanctions against Russia, anticipating that the return of former US President Donald Trump could undermine Western efforts to isolate Moscow, sources familiar with the talks told Reuters.

Discussions between EU officials and envoys are centered on several initiatives to ensure that European sanctions remain in place for longer, strengthening them with stricter enforcement, even if Washington changes course.

Possible steps include “catch-all” clauses to identify and stop shipments of suspicious cargo bound for Russia and broader restrictions on oil shipments, the people said.

There is also talk of changing a requirement that the Russian central bank’s asset freeze, the biggest Western sanction against Moscow, be renewed by European capitals every six months, the sources, who asked not to be named because of sensitivity, said. said.

Several member states are working on the idea of ​​a “catch-all” clause applied either to goods from the battlefield or to a wider range of banned exports, three EU diplomats said.

The clause would allow customs officials to detain shipments if the destination seemed illogical, such as crossing Russia to reach countries in Central Asia.

Preparations are being made in anticipation of a change in Washington’s position should Trump be re-elected.

Any softening from Washington would leave Europe in a difficult position, as the United States is primarily the enforcer of the rules, with strong powers to punish sanctions spread globally.

The European Union is now trying to find its own means to strengthen law enforcement and strengthen its restrictions on Russia.

Tom Keatinge, of the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said European policymakers were preparing “standalone European sanctions, taking into account the possibility of a Trump presidency” but that they should strengthen enforcement.

“If a Trump presidency reverses US sanctions against Russia, the Europeans will have to be much more muscular in … enforcement actions and will no longer be able to hide behind Uncle Sam,” he said.

A Trump campaign spokesman said President Joe Biden’s “weak agenda … emboldened our adversaries, led to war in Ukraine,” criticizing Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris as “dangerously liberal.” , without outlining his stance on sanctions.

European countries were wronged during Trump’s last presidency, when the United States canceled an international agreement with Iran on its nuclear program and unilaterally reimposed sanctions, leaving Europe on the sidelines.

Now, European officials fear a similar shift with Russia could undermine Western efforts to isolate Moscow, two of the people said.

Trump strongly suggested on the campaign trail that he would halt or dramatically slow military aid to Ukraine if he wins the Nov. 5 election.

He refused to say he wanted Ukraine to win the war and went so far as to accuse Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of helping to trigger the conflict.

Trump has often praised his own 2017-2021 administration for imposing sanctions on the Nord Stream II pipeline, but has not made clear his position on future sanctions and has said he wants a quick peace deal with Moscow.

WIDER SWEEP

European diplomats will wait until the end of the year before seriously discussing the new restrictions before Poland takes over the EU’s six-month rotating presidency.

Hungary currently holds the presidency and has dragged its feet on sanctions. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has sparked a storm of criticism for meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, described by Budapest as a “peace mission”.

The revision could also eliminate the need to regularly reaffirm an asset freeze by the Russian central bank, replacing six-month intervals with a 36-month one, sustaining this sanction over the long term.

Assets held by the group of seven major economies (G7) amount to about $300 billion, most of which are held in Europe.

Several countries are also discussing a restriction on “mislabelling” of products destined for Russia, seeking more accurate descriptions. The Baltic states, which border Russia, have long complained that exporters are exploiting EU customs codes.

EU member states are holding preliminary talks on the shape of the 15th sanctions package after months of deadlock since Budapest took over on July 1.

At least 45 ships are expected to be added to the EU’s sanctions list as Western allies seek to strengthen the G7 price cap on Russian oil, a source said. Western sanctions officials believe targeting specific tanks is the best way to tap more Russian oil revenue.

Western powers are also starting to pressure the countries where the tanks are registered, sources said.

The EU also wants to expand the use of the “No Russia clause” in the next round of sanctions.

This would require third-country subsidiaries of EU companies to ban the re-export of certain goods to Russia, including dual-use goods for military purposes, as well as ammunition and firearms.

Several countries, as well as the European Commission, are aiming to further restrict Europe’s energy imports from Russia, including imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), which have surged in recent months.

Belgium, France and others have asked the commission to propose ways to increase Russian LNG tracking to the bloc. Reuters