A referendum in Moldova on eu The short-lived membership was hailed as a victory against Russia, but allegations of Moscow’s continued interference and influence in the former Soviet republic could spell trouble for Brussels.

The result was on a knife’s edge in the Eastern European country, before it was discovered that a sliver of a majority (50.46 percent) of voters supported changing the constitution to include the possibility of joining the EU.

Hours before the result and with the “yes” vote delayed, pro-Western President Maia Sandu told an emergency press conference that “foreign forces” had used money and propaganda to influence the “yes” result won following late support from Moldova’s foreign diaspora.

But the referendum – held in conjunction with the presidential election in which Sandu won the most votes, but not enough to avoid a second round – was marred. by accusations that Moscow bought votes, distributed cash by proxy to ordinary voters and used social media to sow fears about EU membership.

Kremlin which Newsweek contacted for comment denied interference and demanded proof of Sandu’s claims.

Romanian MEP Siegfried Mureșan, who is working on Chisinau’s accession to the EU, called the referendum “a defeat for Russia” but it is unlikely that the Kremlin will stop trying to exert its influence in the country, both during the accession process and, if it succeeds, afterwards.

“Governments of EU member states with friendlier ties to the Kremlin, such as Hungary and Slovakia, have sought to frustrate EU decision-making on Russian sanctions and military and financial support for Ukraine,” said Jeremy Holt, head of Central Europe and from the East. at the S-RM geopolitical and cyber risk consultancy.

“A future pro-Russian government of the Republic of Moldova, which is a full member of the EU, could, together with its MEPs, similarly try to influence EU policy on Russian sanctions, energy imports and security,” said he. Newsweek.

The referendum result only amends Moldova’s constitution to include the pursuit of EU membership, and there are key issues the bloc will want to address. Among them are the destinies of the Russian-speaking region Transnistriawhich broke away in a brief secessionist war in 1992 and hosts Russian troops, as well as Gaguazia, which gained broad autonomy in 1994.

“Given the increase in active Russian measures across Europe, the EU is likely to strongly consider security risks in the upcoming accession process, and the issue of the status of Transnistria is a considerable obstacle in the accession talks,” Holt said.

Marta Mucznik, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the poll results highlight the challenges Brussels faces in expanding EU membership to post-Soviet countries, particularly amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“There is a split in public opinion on Moldova’s EU integration goals, and while Russia’s interference complicates the process, it will not deter EU leaders from making progress through negotiations,” she said. Newsweek.

“However, there is a distinction between Brussels and public opinion in EU member states,” she said, noting that accession requires the unanimous agreement of all 27 members.

“Fears of Russian interference and instability in Europe’s eastern neighborhood could sway public opinion, potentially increasing resistance to Moldova joining the EU,” Mucznik said.

Brussels played a key role in establishing an EU partnership mission in Moldova to combat disinformation and hybrid warfare, but “ultimately, decisions on EU enlargement depend on a delicate balance between EU leaders, their public opinion and priorities from Brussels,” she added.

Holt said not every “no” vote in the referendum was the result of Russian influence, and not all Moldovan citizens support EU membership. Pro-Russian media, NGOs and political groups, as well as Russian-owned businesses, have flourished in Transnistria and Gagauzia.

“Reducing this influence and building trust in Moldovan state institutions can be a long-term process, and future pro-Western governments of the Republic of Moldova are far from guaranteed,” he said.

“This moment presents a unique opportunity to strengthen Moldova’s European aspirations, but it is imperative to prepare for next year’s parliamentary elections,” said visiting colleague at the European University Institute Cristina Vanberghen. The Kremlin “sees this as the last chance to exert control over the region,” she said Newsweek.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the referendum on EU membership had not won decisive support.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was “difficult to explain” how “yes” votes managed to outnumber “no” votes at such a late stage and repeated earlier claims that Moldovan authorities were stifling the opposition.

Peskov also described the election campaign as “unfree”, said the opposition had been denied the opportunity to campaign and that all eyes would be on the second round of voting on November 3.

After getting 42 percent in the first round of the presidential election vote that coincided with the referendum, Sandu faces former Russian prosecutor Alexandr Stoianoglo in the second round.