Georgians vote in a runoff election on Saturday, with a union of pro-Western opposition forces facing a ruling party accused of democratic retreat and a shift towards Russia.

Brussels has warned that the October 26 vote will be crucial to its fate Georgiahis incipient democracy and its long-held aspiration for european union membership.

Opinion polls show opposition parties could win enough votes to form a coalition government to replace the ruling Georgian Dream party, controlled by billionaire billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.

The current government says it wants to win a supermajority in parliament to allow it to pass a constitutional ban on the pro-Western opposition.

“Georgia’s traditionally fractured opposition forces have managed to create an unprecedented united front against the Georgian Dream,” said analyst Gela Vasadze of the Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis.

“But if the ruling party tries to stay in power regardless of the outcome of the election, then there is a risk of post-election unrest.”

In power since 2012, Georgian Dream initially pursued a pro-Western liberal policy agenda. But in the past two years, the party has reversed course.

His campaign centered on a conspiracy theory about a “global war party” controlling Western institutions and trying to drag Georgia into the Russia-Ukraine war.

In a country where the scars of Russia’s 2008 invasion remain unhealed, the party offered voters stories of an imminent threat of war that only the Georgian Dream could prevent.

In a recent TV interview, Ivanishvili painted a grotesque picture of the West where “organs are happening right in the streets.”

“Essential Test”

The party’s passage of a controversial “foreign influence law” this spring targeting civil society sparked weeks of mass street protests and was criticized as a Kremlin-style move to clamp down on dissent.

The move prompted Brussels to freeze Georgia’s EU accession process, while Washington imposed sanctions on dozens of Georgian officials.

Earlier this month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned that Georgian Dream’s actions “signal a shift towards authoritarianism”.

He called the upcoming polls “a crucial test for democracy in Georgia and its path to the European Union.”

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has vowed to lead Georgia towards EU membership, saying ties with the West will normalize once the war in Ukraine ends.

Undecided voters

But the latest polls show that the opposition is poised to garner enough votes to form a coalition government.

The group includes Georgia’s main opposition force, the jailed former president Mikhail SaakashviliUnited National Movement (UNM) and Akhali, a newly formed party led by former UNM leaders.

Along with several smaller parties, they signed up to a pro-European policy platform that features far-reaching electoral, judicial and law enforcement reforms.

They have agreed to form an interim multi-party government to advance reforms — if they hold enough seats in parliament — before calling new elections.

The parties argue that the current electoral environment is not conducive to democratic elections and that a new election organized in a year’s time — after the necessary reforms have been implemented — would truly reflect the will of the voters.

Nestled between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, Georgia was once considered a rare example of democracy among ex-Soviet nations.

But elections in the country of about four million people regularly provoke mass protests.

A poll conducted by American pollster Edison Research shortly before the election showed that 34 percent of voters were determined to vote for Georgian Dream, while the four opposition alliances together would garner 53 percent of the vote.

No other party is expected to clear the five percent electoral threshold needed to secure seats in the 150-member legislature.

But the vote’s outcome is far from a foregone conclusion, as more than a quarter of respondents told the poll they were either undecided or declined to name their preferred political force.

Voting will begin at 04:00 GMT and close at 16:00 GMT, with the polls published at the close.

The elections, held in a system of proportional party lists, will be monitored by international observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

(AFP)