A limited inventory of homes for sale in the Chicago area is pushing home prices above the national level, according to Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin. In September, Redfin data shows Chicago-area home prices rose 9.4 percent year-over-year, compared to a 3.9 percent increase nationally. Home sales in the Chicago area fell 9.2 percent year-over-year in September, compared with a 4.8 percent decline nationally. New home listings fell 7 percent in Chicago, compared with a 2 percent increase nationally year-over-year in August, Fairweather said, with Redfin data showing Chicago saw a slight increase in listings in September from year over year, while rates have decreased minimally nationally.

“The way I interpret it is that people who own homes in the Chicago area are not eager to sell them,” Fairweather said. “And there are more people wanting to buy houses than there are willing to sell them, which puts further pressure on prices. … whereas for the rest of the country there is a bit more slack in the market and not as much demand.”

In September, the median sales price of a home in both city limits and the Chicago metropolitan area was $350,000, down slightly from $355,000 in August, according to data from the Illinois Realtors, an association commercial for real estate agents. The statewide median sales price in September was $290,000, down marginally from $295,000 in August. Data from Illinois Realtors showed average sales prices rose more than 7 percent year-over-year in the city, metro area and statewide in September.

The national median sales price for existing homes — which excludes new homes under construction — was $404,500, the 15th straight month of year-over-year price increases, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. The inventory of homes for sale rose in September from August, both locally and nationally, according to data from Illinois Realtors and NAR.

Freddie Mac data shows the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage begins its downward trend in May, with a steeper decline occurring between July and September. Average rates hit a two-year low of 6.08% in the last week of September.

As workers return to the office, residents move back to Chicago and other cities, driving up home prices

While she saw some buyers reengage toward the end of September as mortgage rates continued to fall, Erika Villegas, president of the Chicago Association of Realtors, said she has potential buyers still dealing with persistent inventory and affordability challenges. Many families are usually inclined to stay put while the kids go back to school, she said.

Adam Stempel, 43, is one example of a potential buyer who decided to back out of the house hunt this summer.

Stempel and his wife purchased their four-bedroom home in west suburban Villa Park in 2009 and are looking to move to a community with better-rated schools for their two children that better reflect their age group. Their current mortgage rate is around 3%.

Earlier this year, they were looking at homes in a variety of suburban neighborhoods, including Oak Brook, Clarendon Hills and Hinsdale. But a combination of factors — including high home prices and mortgage rates, dissatisfaction with home inventory on the market and their decision to send one of their children to private school — led them to put their home search on hold until next year, Stempel said. Stempel’s budget is limited to $1.2 million, which he called a stretch, and he said he wants a house that matches what he has in his current space, with amenities like an open-air living area free and a finished basement.

“It’s really hard for us, in the sense that you make one place your home, and then when you go find the next one, you expect it to be a little bit better,” said Stempel, who works in technology. “And I just don’t think there was that inventory at our price point to make it better.”

As for the rest of the market year, some in the industry remain optimistic, while others are not.

Crystal Tran, who leads a team of real estate agents at @properties Christie’s International Real Estate and has been in the industry for more than a dozen years, said she’s seen more buyers and sellers start trickling in as rates have dropped , but that people can sit tight until after the elections.

“I think right after the election, it’s going to be booming again,” Tran said. “With rates going down and if they continue to go down, the people that I’ve been in contact with in the last year or two years ago who wanted to buy but couldn’t find a home or couldn’t really afford the kind of house that they wanted, they could take that leap and afford that house now that rates have come down a little bit.”

But Fairweather of Redfin is less sure. With recent changes in real estate agent fees, climate-induced hurricanes and fluctuating mortgage rates, there is a lot of uncertainty for buyers and sellers, she said.

“I think it’s never good for the markets when there’s uncertainty,” Fairweather said. “(After the election), I think some uncertainties will disappear, but not all.”

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