Sometimes you have to play the cards you’re dealt. Other times, you have to play the cards you’ve been dealt. The Phillies they will likely find themselves in the latter category this offseason. Their cards are face up in front of them. Their stack of chips is in the middle of the table. As Steve Cohen bids on aces, John Middleton he must hope that his pranksters will turn into kings.

It’s a tortured metaphor. Hope you get the picture. Juan Soto probably doesn’t come through that door. Anyone who expects him to — or who blames the Phillies when he doesn’t — needs to know one thing about this year’s market. Cohen and the Mets will set the price points. Any bidding war the Phillies end up winning probably would have been better not won.

Here’s the reality the Phillies will be dealing with. The Mets could pay Yankees star Soto an average annual value of $45 million a year, pay Orioles ace Corbin Burnes $30 million a year and re-sign Pete Alonso with a $25 million per year contract and would still be worth less. payroll than the Phillies have. Think about it.

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Don’t get lost in the details. These AAVs are probably lower than they will end up being. But the idea remains. The Mets are scary right now. This has nothing to do with them beating the Phillies in the NLDS. They were going to be scary regardless. The fear happens to be a little more real now that we’ve seen what the Mets were capable of even before losing over $95 million in dead money from their payroll.

The truth is, the 2024 Mets were not a Cinderella story. They were a princess of a trust fund in a gap year. The roster that beat the Phillies in the NLDS accounted for only about $240 million of the Mets’ estimated $358 million payroll. At the time, the Mets were spending about $41 million on players they released, plus another $53 million on players they traded. You could spend a whole day laughing at the various quirks on their balance sheet.

Appendix A: Between Omar Narváez’s $7.5 million released in June and James McCann’s $8 million traded to the Orioles, the Mets spent more money on non-roster catchers than the Dodgers spent on Will Smith, the fourth highest paid catcher in baseball.

Appendix B: The Mets’ official payroll — that is, the one used to determine luxury tax penalties — included $57.1 million in payments to the Rangers and Astros as part of their 2023 trades of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. That’s $100,000 less than the Mets were paying their entire playoff rotation (Kodai Senga, Sean Manaea, José Quintana, Luis Severino, David Peterson).

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As of this offseason, all that dead money is gone. The Mets will enter free agency with a salary that includes about $117.5 million in guaranteed contracts. They are on the hook for Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, Starling Marte, Edwin Díaz, Jeff McNeil and Senga. Beyond that, the world is their oyster.

That total doesn’t include much of their playoff roster — Quintana, Severino and Manaea are all eligible for free agency, as is Alonso. It also does not include the pre-arbitration salaries of playoff entrants Mark Vientos, Francisco Alvarez, Reed Garrett or Jose Búttó.

But let’s talk apples to apples. That $117.5 million figure? That’s $102.5 million less than the Phillies have tied up in guaranteed contracts through 2025. Which means the Mets will enter the offseason with at least $102.5 million more in spending power, assuming both teams operate with the same upper limit, whatever it is.

What is the upper limit for the Phillies? It’s a relevant question, to a certain extent. Dave Dombrowski introduced it at the end-of-season press conference, as he does every year.

Do the Phillies have the financial wherewithal to make a play for a star free agent (like Soto)?

“I don’t think we need to have more star players,” Dombrowski said. “We have as many stars as anyone in baseball. So I don’t think you necessarily need to add more. John (Middleton) is very kind and giving, but you’re also in a position where you’re still working on a payroll. … Would you be open to that? Yes, but I think you have to be careful because sometimes it’s not just the star players, it’s the supporting cast as well. And when you look at it again, we had eight All-Stars, right? I know they’re not all veteran guys, but that’s more than anybody in baseball.”

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Even if the Phillies can spend more, it may not matter. The real question is whether they can spend more than the other teams that will bid for a star like Soto. The answer is self-explanatory. No, they can’t. There’s a bigger whale on the market this year.

Dombrowski will have to get creative if he wants to substantially change the complexion of his team. The Phillies can’t rely on shopping in the top free agent market to fill their needs. He needs to find value where other teams don’t in free agency. Or must exchange value for value in the commercial market. Mostly, they have to hope that the money they’ve already committed to doesn’t turn out to be as dead as it was for the Mets. Dombrowski and Middleton wrote their big checks. Now the players have to earn them.