Democrat Kamala Harris has an eight-point lead in the latest KSTP/SurveyUSA poll of the 2024 presidential race. Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 51 percent to 43 percent, with three percent undecided and two percent preferring another candidate. The poll has a confidence interval, or margin of error, of +/- 4%.

Harris led by six points in our late September poll and has led every poll since she entered the race in late July and named Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz her running mate in August.

“This is a snapshot,” Carleton College political analyst Steven Schier said after analyzing the results. “We’ll see next Tuesday what the real electorate looks like.”

Schier says he was surprised so few respondents identified as “independents” in the poll, a group in which Trump holds a one-point lead. Forty-two percent identified as Democrats and 35% as Republicans.

“Typically, about a third of Minnesotans say they’re independent, less than 20 percent say they are in this poll,” says Schier.

Schier also notes an anomaly in the gender demographic breakdown, where Harris and Trump are now tied at 48 percent among men and Harris leads by 16 points among women. Last month, Trump led men by 12 points and Harris led women by 18.

“What we’re seeing is a collapse in support for Trump among Minnesota men in this poll,” says Schier. “A huge change in just a few weeks, which seems unusual. Also, Harris’ decline among women seems curious in a few weeks.

Part of the survey remained faithful. Harris leads by 33 in urban areas of the state and by 13 in suburban areas. Trump leads by 23 in rural areas.

“You have very close races in all the swing states and nationally, and I think what you’re going to get is probably a narrow Harris victory in Minnesota,” Schier said. “I don’t expect an eight-point margin.”

SurveyUSA surveyed 900 adults in the state of Minnesota from 10/24/24 to 10/28/24. Among adults, 801 were identified as registered to vote; of registered voters, 728 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election and were asked the substantive questions that follow. This research was conducted online using a nonprobability sample of online adult panel members randomly selected by Lucid Holdings LLC of New Orleans. The combined pool of survey respondents was weighted by US Census ACS targets for sex, age, race, education, and home ownership and for the 2020 recall presidential vote.