WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — We’re just days away from moving into our final month of hurricane season.

However, there is a favorable model in the Caribbean for tropical development over the next two weeks.

There is currently no tropical system there, but conditions are favorable and models continue to suggest development in the Central Caribbean over the weekend.

Tracking the Tropics: Hurricane Center | Hurricane Guide

The National Hurricane Center still gives a medium chance of development this weekend and next week.

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Once that happens, we’ll have a better idea of ​​where it can go.

As we get later into fall, there is more and more shear from cold fronts and wintry systems that increase in frequency as winter approaches. This favors a more northerly/northeasterly type track for systems over the Greater Antilles and then up into the Atlantic.

This also makes it less likely that a storm will maintain hurricane strength if it happens to move near Florida.

It is still far too early to tell if the Caribbean area will have any potential impact on our weather next week. However, it could sneak in between autumn systems, so it’s worth keeping an eye out for.

Water temperatures are still above average in the Caribbean

For the rest of the season, this pattern conducive to tropical development will last for several weeks, so it’s possible to get a few storms out of it.

Water temperatures have cooled well below average around the state. However, they are still above average in the Caribbean and southern Bahamas, which is sufficient to develop and maintain tropical systems.

Tropical systems become less common the later we get into the year as cold fronts and shear make development less likely. Hurricane season ends on November 30. However, hurricanes formed in the Atlantic every month of the year.