By Tim Kelly

TOKYO (Reuters) – A shock election result in Japan, Washington’s key ally in Asian security, and a potentially destabilizing U.S. presidential election next week could give China and other rivals an opportunity to test Western resolve in East Asia .

Analysts say China could step up incursions into Japanese territory as well as pressure on Taiwan, while North Korea, which has deepened its security cooperation with Russia, could step up ballistic missile testing.

Japan’s general election on Sunday marked the worst defeat for the long-serving ruling coalition in 15 years, leaving it scrambling for support from opposition parties to retain control of the powerful lower house.

“From Beijing’s point of view, this (election result) signals an ideal scenario: a politically immobilized Japan,” said Tomohiko Taniguchi, a former adviser to late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who steered Japan away from decades of pacifism.

“China’s intrusions into Japan’s airspace and waters may intensify, while military provocations to Taiwan may become routine,” he added.

Following the election, both Tokyo and Washington expressed their commitment to Japan-US security cooperation. Beijing said the election was Japan’s “internal matter”.

But the failure of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has governed for most of Japan’s postwar history, and its coalition partner to secure a majority is the latest sign of disgruntled voters in US allies rejecting established parties, following the recent elections in France and Germany.

While those European nations are central to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s defense of Europe, Japan is crucial to Washington’s security strategy in Asia. It is home to the largest overseas deployment of US forces in an archipelago stretching from Taiwan to Russia’s far east, which is in China and is a first-line defense against North Korean missiles.

In response to increased Chinese military activity around its islands and nearby Taiwan, including more regular exercises with Russia and the first incursion of a Chinese plane into Japanese airspace in August, Tokyo is undertaking its biggest military expansion since World War II World.

That five-year plan, unveiled in 2022, will double defense spending to pay for new weapons, including longer-range missiles with enough range to hit targets on mainland China.

“Any indication that Japan’s defense policy initiatives might slow or become less ambitious would encourage China and North Korea to argue that Japan is weak and undermine Washington’s efforts to strengthen the US-Japan alliance,” said Nicholas Szechenyi , expert on US-Japan relations. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, an American think tank.

This comes ahead of a possible US presidential election victory for Republican Donald Trump, who sought to pressure Tokyo to pay more for US military support during his previous 2017-21 term. Polls show the election is an extremely close race between Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris.

Trump, whose supporters stormed the Capitol after losing the 2020 election, a result he tried to overturn, says he will cry fraud and not accept the results if he loses again.

SMILING OPPONENTS

“I don’t think Japan will move away from national security, but there’s no doubt that distractions will prevent proactive action,” said Joseph Kraft, financial policy analyst at Rorschach Advisory in Tokyo. “I’m sure the opponents of the Western world are smiling,” he added.

At a press conference on Monday, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he was committed to the LDP’s defense spending and closer security ties with Washington.

State Department spokesman Matthew Miller echoed Ishiba’s sentiment, saying the US-Japan relationship is a “cornerstone” of peace and security around the world and he doesn’t see that changing because of the results elections in any country.

As Chinese military power grows, Washington is relying more on Tokyo. In April, the allies announced a historic renewal of their security alliance, including plans to jointly develop missiles and enhance the US military command in Japan.

Now, potential power-sharing deals between the LDP and smaller parties, which won over many voters with promises of tax cuts, will further complicate the thorny issue of how Japan finances key defense projects, according to Tobias Harris of Japan Foresight, a political risk. consultative.

“The kind of governments that come out of this will not be able to raise taxes,” he said.

The Democratic People’s Party, one of the opposition groups that could partially support the PDL in parliament, has promised in its campaign to halve Japan’s 10 percent sales tax, cut income tax, reduce social contributions and eliminate high school fees.

But with Japan’s defense build-up more than half complete, the PDL needs to start discussing Japan’s next defense strategy and how much to spend, said Kevin Maher, a consultant who previously headed the Bureau for Japanese Affairs of the US State Department.

“The question is how much initiative will the government be able to take … going forward as they start the process very, very soon.”

“With the US divided, it helps to have a stable Japan.”

(Reporting by Tim Kelly, Sakura Murakami, Trevor Hunnicutt and Simon Lewis; Editing by John Geddie and Raju Gopalakrishnan)