He noted a disturbing trend of “groups of young people” switching from car thefts to home burglaries, adding: “It’s only a matter of time before one of these incidents turns deadly.”

“There’s going to be an outcry if that happens, and they’re probably anticipating that, so they’re passing stricter laws,” he said. “It won’t necessarily stop them from happening.”

Todd Clear, a professor at Rutgers School of Law, expressed concern about the impact of increased sentences on New Jersey’s wide racial disparities in incarceration rates, calling the timing of the law “ironic” given the state’s recent work on justice reform criminal. “Nothing in the evidence suggests that tougher penalties will reduce crime,” he said.

Clear pointed out that punitive laws often fail to reduce crime in the long term and disproportionately affect young offenders and communities of color, saying: “Often juveniles who commit crimes at the age of 13 or 14 have no alternative options and end up face long prison sentences that we would later regret.” Clear added that New Jersey’s crime rates are down, in part due to post-Covid stabilization. “Juvenile sentencing in this way reflects the strict sentencing mistakes of the 1980s that many lawmakers now regret.”