A new poll shows where Michigan voters stand in the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump a week before Election Day.

Harris leads Trump by 3%

In this poll, Harris leads Trump by a 3% margin — 46.7%-43.7%.

This is a change of 0.4% from our survey from early Octoberwhen Harris was leading by 2.6% — 46.8%-44.2%.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. got 3.9% of the vote.

Kennedy gets 4.2% of the strong GOP vote and Harris wins 3.1% of those votes.

Trump and Kennedy each win just 1 percent of the strong Democratic vote.

The importance of turnout

Among Harris voters, 39.1% plan to vote by absentee ballot, 12.3% plan to vote at an early voting location and 46.5% plan to vote on Election Day.

Among Trump voters, 21.1% plan to vote by absentee ballot, 16.8% plan to vote at an early voting location and 58.3% plan to vote on Election Day.

With poll results showing a lead that is within the margin of error (+/- 4%), turnout will be critical in Michigan’s presidential race.

Harris leads absentee voters 30.9% (63.4%-52.5%) and absentee voters 43.7% (70%-26.3%).

Republicans drove more voters to early voting sites — only 8.3 percent of Trump voters planned to vote early during our early October poll.

The motivation to vote

Voters were asked to rank how likely they were to vote in the presidential election on a scale of 1 to 10.

Both Harris and Trump voters are similarly motivated to vote, coming in at 9.7.

Kennedy voters are motivated with a score of 9.1, while undecided voters had a score of 7.1.

Among Harris and Trump voters, 97% said they were definitely voting.

The most important issues

Here are the top issues, according to Trump voters:

• 41.4%: Jobs and the economy.

• 19.9%: Border and immigration.

• 7.9%: inflation.

• 3%: Foreign policy.

Here are the top issues, according to Harris voters:

• 22.9%: Abortion.

• 16.5%: Anti-Trump.

• 9.2%: jobs and economy.

• 8.5%: Protecting democracy.

• 6.3%: Candidate morale.

• 4.2%: inflation.

• 3.9%: taxes and government spending.

Massive gender gap

The gender gap among voters is even more pronounced than in the early October poll.

Harris leads women by 24.4% — 58.3%-33.9%. Her lead with women was 13.2 percent in early October.

Trump leads men by 19.9% ​​– 54.7%-33.8%. His lead with men was 9.5 percent in early October.

Harris gets 34.8% of the male vote, while Trump gets 33.9% of the female vote. Kennedy receives 4.4% of the female vote and 2.9% of the male vote.

The survey found that 2024 is the most gender-divided election of our lifetime, with “deep and stark” differences between men and women.

College voters

College voters voted similarly in late October as they did earlier in the month.

Harris leads college voters by a 14.8% margin — 51.2%-36.4%. Trump leads non-college voters by a 6.1% margin — 49.2%-43.1%.

The difference is even more pronounced when broken down by high school diploma. Trump holds a 24.2% lead (58.4%-34.2%) among voters whose highest level of education is a high school diploma.

Harris has a 7.3% lead (49.3%-42%) among voters with a post-secondary education.

Live: Electoral Town Hall

At 12:30 p.m. on Tuesday, October 29, 2024, we’re hosting a town hall discussion to address Michigan’s importance to the presidential race and go over other key races in the state, such as the Senate and House races.

You can watch the entire conversation live by clicking here or using the Local 4+ app.

Survey methodology

This poll was commissioned by WDIV Local 4 News and the Detroit News. The Glengariff Group, Inc, conducted the statewide survey and likely included general election voters.

600 people were surveyed by telephone between October 22-24, 2024. This poll has a margin of error of +/- 4% with a confidence level of 95%.

Of the respondents, 83.2% were contacted by mobile phone and 16.8% were contacted by landline.